Lee Hae-chan: "The candidate chosen by the people is very clear... Lee Jae-myung will win"

"This Presidential Election Expected to Be as Close as the 2012 Election"

Former Leader of the Democratic Party Lee Hae-chan / Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] Former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Lee Hae-chan, predicted the victory of candidate Lee Jae-myung about a month before the presidential election. He also advised not to be swayed by the recent presidential candidate approval rating polls, stating, "Polls are not necessarily the public opinion."

In a column posted on April 4th on the Democratic Party's election committee communication channel 'Lee Jae-myung Plus,' former leader Lee said, "This presidential election is as close as the 2012 election," but added, "Candidate Lee will win."

He continued, "The reason I judge this way is because I trust our people," and argued, "Our people have achieved the Candlelight Revolution and a national income of 30,000 dollars. Isn't it very clear who the people will choose as their candidate?"

He emphasized, "What we must keep in mind when holding a big election like the presidential election is to trust the people."

Former leader Lee also commented on the recently released presidential candidate approval rating polls. He said, "Polls are not the same as public opinion. Strategies swayed by polls will lead the election astray," adding, "Campaigns should not blindly trust polls but must have the ability to interpret the big trends and changes. The so-called 'gut feeling' of experienced election veterans, or what young people nowadays call a 'feeling vibe,' should not be ignored."

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (left), and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate / Photo by Yonhap News

He also pointed out problems with the ARS (Automatic Response System) polling method. He said, "ARS is frequently conducted and heavily reported by the media because of its low cost," and added, "It may be useful for observing short-term reactions and trends, but the approval rating numbers have no real meaning. Rather, candidates and campaigns obsessed with ARS numbers tend to make poor judgments or mislead the public."

He continued, "It is truly shameful from the perspective of journalistic ethics that Korean media report such polls indiscriminately," and explained, "Many people are startled by the fluctuating polls, and some in campaigns become impatient when seeing ARS poll results, but a major election like the presidential election should be fundamentally based on the spirit of the times, voter structure and trends, candidate qualities, and policy quality, and then properly reference reliable polls for a comprehensive judgment."

Meanwhile, the viewership rating of the first presidential candidate debate held the previous day (April 3rd) was recorded as the second highest among all presidential TV debates in Korea. Lee Taeksu, CEO of the polling agency 'Realmeter,' wrote on Facebook that "According to Nielsen Korea, the TV debate held as a preliminary contest yesterday had a 39% viewership rating," adding, "It is the second highest since TV debates began in 1997."

He said, "Until the last presidential election, if the viewership rating exceeded 30%, it was a close election with a margin within 5 percentage points between the first and second place; if it was in the 20% range, it was a wide-margin election," and predicted, "With yesterday's viewership rating, this presidential election is likely to be a close contest, within or around a 5 percentage point margin."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.