"Another Holiday Nightmare" ... COVID-19 Cases Increased Even During Less Tested Holiday Period

Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, over 20,000 cases for two consecutive days
120,000 cases expected next week... Home treatment management nearing 90%

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Jo In-kyung and Lee Chun-hee] This weekend, following the Lunar New Year holiday, is expected to be a critical turning point in the spread of COVID-19. There are bleak forecasts suggesting that the number of new confirmed cases could reach 120,000 next week. In particular, with the number of home-treated patients approaching 100,000, concerns are rising that the current healthcare system will soon be overwhelmed.

Faster-than-expected increase due to Omicron

According to health authorities, as of 0:00 on the 3rd, the number of new COVID-19 confirmed cases reached 22,907, setting a new record high once again. Typically, the number of PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests decreases during holidays, leading to a drop in confirmed cases, but during this holiday period, despite fewer tests, confirmed cases surged sharply.

Before the holiday, on the 28th of last month, the number of suspected reports and PCR tests at temporary screening clinics reached 343,457, but by the 30th, it had dropped to 196,064, remaining around 200,000 tests per day during the holiday. On the last day of the holiday, the 2nd, the number increased again to 269,865 but still did not reach pre-holiday levels. Meanwhile, new confirmed cases rose from 17,512 on the 28th to over 20,000 at 20,269 on the 2nd, and the upward trend continued on the 3rd.

The rapid increase in confirmed cases despite fewer tests is largely due to the swift spread of Omicron. The test positivity rate, which indicates the proportion of positive cases among suspected reports and temporary screening clinic tests, soared to 10.9% on that day. Even if the number of PCR tests returns to pre-holiday levels, the number of new confirmed cases could exceed 30,000. However, with the introduction of a new testing system to respond to Omicron, it is expected that the number of PCR tests will not increase significantly. PCR testing is limited to those aged 60 and above, those who test positive on self-test kits or rapid antigen tests, to avoid overloading PCR testing capacity.

Professor Baek Soon-young, Emeritus Professor at the Catholic University Medical School, said, "Even if PCR testing is restricted, the overall screening through rapid antigen tests will increase, and those who test positive will undergo PCR testing, so the number of confirmed cases will inevitably rise after the holiday." He expressed concern, saying, "It is expected that 30,000 to 40,000 cases will be reported around this weekend, and the continuous upward trend may reach 100,000 by next month."

There are also forecasts that the number of confirmed cases could reach 120,000 next week. According to a report from the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, a team led by Professor Shim Eun-ha of Soongsil University's Department of Mathematics predicted that 128,468 new confirmed cases will occur on the 9th. This is about two weeks earlier than the Central Disease Control Headquarters' earlier forecast that the number of confirmed cases could reach up to 120,000 by the end of this month.

Home treatment emergency... approaching 100,000

As confirmed cases rapidly increase, an emergency has been declared in the management of home-treated patients by health authorities. Currently, the number of home treatment patients nationwide is 97,136, a sharp increase of 7,716 from the previous day (89,420).

The number of home-treated patients was only 26,127 on the 23rd of last month but doubled to about 50,627 by the 28th, and then surpassed 60,000 on the 30th, 70,000 on the 31st, and 80,000 on the 1st of this month. The government estimates that the total number of patients that the 461 domestic home treatment management medical institutions can handle is about 109,000. The number of patients is already approaching 90% of the maximum capacity, and it is expected to reach saturation soon.

Son Young-rae, Social Strategy Officer at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, said yesterday, "We expect the number of home-treated patients to reach about 110,000 next week," adding, "We are working to increase the number of confirmed cases that can be managed by expanding management medical institutions and adjusting monitoring frequency."

However, the nationwide COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy rate still has some capacity. Of the 2,370 beds dedicated to severe patients nationwide, 381 beds (16.1%) are in use, and of the 2,950 beds for moderate to severe patients, 1,135 beds (38.5%) are occupied. For beds in infectious disease hospitals treating moderate patients, 7,769 out of 18,619 beds (41.7%) are in use, leaving 10,850 beds available.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.