36 Days to the Presidential Election, Where Are the Votes of the 2030 Generation and Centrist Voters Heading?

Analysis of Public Opinion Poll Trends in January
Some Support from 2030 Generation and Centrist Voters Shifts to 'Yoon Seok-yeol'

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] With just over a month remaining until the presidential election, it has been confirmed that the so-called 'swing voters' in their 20s and 30s and the moderate voter base are shifting somewhat toward Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party. However, as the support rates between Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon remain neck and neck, it is difficult to predict the outcome.

Analyzing the public opinion polls conducted by Gallup Korea over the past month (conducted on the 4th-6th, 11th-13th, 18th-20th, and 25th-27th of last month), the percentage of respondents who had not decided on a preferred presidential candidate in the 'presidential candidate support rate' survey decreased from 15% → 10% → 12% → 10%.

This indicates that while in the survey from the 4th-6th, Lee led Yoon by about 10 percentage points with 36% to 26%, in the survey from the 25th-27th, Lee and Yoon were tied at 35% each, suggesting that some undecided voters shifted their support to Yoon. Ahn's support rate remained relatively stable during the same period at 15% → 17% → 17% → 15%.

(Image source= Korea Gallup website)

The trend among moderate voters was similar. From the 4th-6th to the 25th-27th, support for Lee among moderate-leaning voters was 33% → 36% → 34% → 35%, showing little change, while Yoon's support rose from 24% → 24% → 27% → 32%. Ahn's support fluctuated slightly from 22% → 23% → 23% → 20%.

Looking at Seoul, where the proportion of moderate voters is high, Lee's support was 36% → 37% → 34% → 35%, but Yoon's support surged from 26% → 31% → 33% → 35% during the same period.

By age group, the same trend was observed among those in their 20s and 30s. Among voters in their 20s, Lee's support declined from 24% → 22% → 22% → 14%, while Yoon's support increased from 10% → 23% → 30% → 31%. Among those in their 30s, Lee maintained a similar level at 35% → 37% → 28% → 38%, while Yoon's support rose from 19% → 26% → 27% → 27%.

According to the changes in public opinion polls over the past month, it appears that some undecided voters, especially moderates, have shifted their support to Yoon.

The Gallup Korea survey conducted from the 25th to 27th of last month was carried out via telephone interviews with 1,000 respondents nationwide aged 18 and older. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level, and a response rate of 15.1%. For more details, refer to the Public Opinion Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.