[Global Issue+] Russia: "Cannot tolerate NATO's eastward expansion"... Rising 'Greater Russiaism'

CSTO Resembling the Warsaw Pact Organization
Putin Politically Utilizing 'Greater Russia' Ideology

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] All three consecutive security talks between the West and Russia aimed at easing military tensions in Eastern Europe triggered by the Ukraine conflict have ended in failure. Russia has persistently demanded that the West guarantee a halt to NATO's eastward expansion, while the United States and European countries have rejected these threats, making it difficult for both sides to find common ground.

Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Russia has shown efforts to restore its diminished status and influence in Eastern Europe, raising concerns among observers. There are growing fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin might politically exploit the nationalist ideology known as 'Greater Russia-ism,' which calls for reclaiming the former Soviet Union's stature, potentially leading to a full-scale war in Ukraine.

According to Russia's TASS news agency on the 14th (local time), Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at an annual press conference, "Our patience is running out. We expect the U.S. and NATO to provide a written response to Russia's security demands by next week," and criticized, "The West's overconfidence is escalating tensions."

Russia's security demands require the U.S. and NATO to pledge that they will no longer accept additional member states from Eastern Europe, effectively stopping the so-called 'eastward expansion,' and to promise no military activities in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The U.S. and NATO have rejected these demands as absurd threats.

Russia Dreams of a Second 'Warsaw Pact'

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While escalating confrontations with the West, Russia recently suppressed unrest in Kazakhstan through an emergency deployment under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia among former Soviet states. The swift deployment, suppression, and withdrawal operations have left a strong impression on former Soviet countries. There are even prospects that a powerful military alliance similar to the Cold War-era Warsaw Pact, which opposed NATO, could be formed between Russia and former Soviet states.

The Warsaw Pact was a military alliance formed by the former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc countries to counter NATO. Officially known as the 'Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance,' it was established in 1955 when West Germany joined NATO, solidifying the East-West Cold War structure in Europe and leading to the establishment of major U.S. military bases in Europe. The Soviet Union and eight Eastern Bloc countries gathered in Warsaw, Poland, to form the organization.

What distinguished this organization from NATO was its centralized system led by the Soviet military, with other member states acting as satellite countries, and the automatic intervention of Soviet troops to support communist regimes facing instability or collapse. Russia's recent emergency intervention in Kazakhstan's unrest has drawn comparisons to the Warsaw Pact for these reasons.

Putin's Long-Term Support Base: 'Greater Russia-ism'

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Analysts suggest that behind Russia's deepening confrontation with the West and efforts to strengthen influence in Eastern Europe lies President Putin's political calculation. He appears to be leveraging the strong nationalism known as Greater Russia-ism, which emerged after the Soviet Union's collapse, as a foundation to boost his approval ratings. Greater Russia-ism is an aggressive nationalism that longs for the era when Russia, along with the U.S., dominated the world and insists that Russia must reclaim all territories of the former Soviet states, including Eastern Bloc countries.

According to a March survey by Russia's state-run polling agency, the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, 67% of respondents expressed regret over the Soviet Union's collapse. An independent polling agency, the Levada Center, found last year that 65% of respondents also regretted the Soviet collapse. Moreover, 75% described the Soviet era as "the best time to live."

When Russia forcibly annexed Crimea in 2014, President Putin's approval rating soared to 82%, demonstrating how deeply entrenched Greater Russia-ism is within Russia. With Putin's approval rating recently dropping to the 50% range due to the COVID-19 pandemic and fluctuations in international oil prices affecting the economy and finances, he has no choice but to continue promoting Greater Russia-ism to regain support. Consequently, military tensions along the Ukraine border continue to escalate, raising concerns about the outbreak of an accidental full-scale war.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.