How Fast Is Omicron Spreading? Authorities Say Domestic Detection Rate Surpasses 20%

Authorities "Omicron Variant Expected to Become Dominant Strain by January 21"

Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum is presiding over the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting on COVID-19 response held at the Government Seoul Office in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on the 14th. The government has finalized social distancing measures to ease the private gathering limit to 6 people for three weeks until the 6th of next month, while maintaining restaurant and cafe operating hours until 9 PM. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Daehyun] As the detection rate of the Omicron COVID-19 variant in South Korea has surpassed 20%, its spread is accelerating. Health authorities predict that on the 21st, the Omicron variant will become the dominant strain (detection rate over 50%) domestically.

On the morning of the 14th, Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum stated at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting, "Although the quarantine indicators have somewhat improved, the number of confirmed cases is not decreasing, and the Lunar New Year holiday is just two weeks away." He added, "Especially with the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, it accounted for 20% of domestic confirmed cases two days ago, bringing us close to it becoming the dominant strain."

According to a three-day investigation conducted by health authorities starting from the 9th, as of midnight on the 13th, the domestic detection rate of the Omicron variant was 22.8%. The detection rate of the Omicron variant in South Korea rose from 4% in the fifth week of last month to 12.5% in the first week of January, and on this day, it exceeded 20% for the first time, increasing rapidly. Health authorities expect that as early as the 21st, the Omicron variant will push out the Delta variant and become the dominant strain domestically.

The Omicron variant is 2 to 3 times more transmissible than the Delta variant, but its severe case rate is about one-third. However, if confirmed cases surge, the number of severe patients will inevitably increase as well, which is expected to place a burden on the medical and treatment system.

Recently, Professor Jung Jae-hoon’s team at Gachon University College of Medicine projected that by March, there will be over 10,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and more than 2,000 critically ill patients. They also forecast that if social distancing measures are eased, daily confirmed cases could reach 20,000 and severe cases 1,500 by the end of February. Professor Cho Sung-il’s team at Seoul National University College of Medicine also predicted that if current social distancing is maintained, confirmed cases will increase to between 10,000 and 17,000 by the end of next month.

Park Hyang, head of the Central Accident Response Headquarters’ quarantine team, explained yesterday, "Many studies expect that even if current social distancing is maintained, the spread of Omicron will cause confirmed cases to continue increasing from mid to late February." She added, "Depending on the level of social distancing, the number of confirmed cases could exceed 20,000 by the end of February and 30,000 by the end of March, greatly surpassing quarantine and medical response capacities." She emphasized, "To block and suppress the introduction and transmission of Omicron as much as possible, it is necessary to control the pace of easing social distancing and minimize the baseline number of cases."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.