[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Is North Korea Really Developing Hypersonic Missiles?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea launched another ballistic missile just six days after its self-proclaimed ‘hypersonic missile’ test launch on the 5th, drawing attention to the type of missile. Military experts believe that the test launch is part of the ongoing development of North Korea’s hypersonic missile, while military authorities analyze it as the development of a different type of ballistic missile.

On the 11th, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) stated in a text message sent to reporters covering the Ministry of National Defense, "Our military detected one projectile presumed to be a ballistic missile launched by North Korea from inland toward the East Sea at around 7:27 a.m. today (11th)."

The JCS added that "South Korea and U.S. intelligence authorities are conducting a detailed analysis of additional information such as the flight distance and altitude of the projectile launched by North Korea today," and "Our military is maintaining a readiness posture while closely monitoring related developments in close cooperation with the U.S. in preparation for additional launches."

The missile launch area on the 11th is known to be in Jagang-do Province. Jagang-do was the site of the first test launch of the hypersonic missile ‘Hwasong-8’ in September last year. From this perspective, the recent missile launch can be seen as part of the efforts to strengthen national defense emphasized since last year.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "It appears that North Korea has gained some confidence in hypersonic missiles and is likely to conduct additional test launches to complete the technology."

However, the South Korea-U.S. alliance still considers North Korea’s technological capabilities insufficient. John Kirby, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Defense, said at a briefing on the 10th (local time), "We are still evaluating the details," and "We consider the missile launched by North Korea to be a ballistic missile."

South Korea’s military also assessed that the missile launched by North Korea on the 5th had a maximum speed of about Mach 6 (six times the speed of sound, approximately 2.04 km/s), an altitude below 50 km, and a flight distance that fell short of North Korea’s claimed 700 km. They concluded that the performance was exaggerated. The military argues that a hypersonic missile should glide over a significant portion of its flight path and maintain speeds above Mach 5. The Hyunmoo-2C deployed by South Korea has a maximum speed of about Mach 9 but is not described as ‘hypersonic’ and is classified as a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MARV) ballistic missile.

Military authorities believe that the missiles North Korea has launched this year are not hypersonic missiles but other types of missiles. According to their analysis, North Korea’s missile launched on September 28 last year, claimed to be the hypersonic missile ‘Hwasong-8,’ is closer in shape to a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), whereas the missile launched on the 5th is believed to be equipped with a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MARV). MARV is a ballistic missile that can alter its direction in the final phase of flight using wings mounted on the body’s sides, thereby disrupting missile defense systems.

Hypersonic missiles are classified into those equipped with HGVs and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM). HGV-equipped missiles carry a gliding warhead on a rocket booster, which separates the warhead at the target altitude. HCMs are cruise missiles fitted with scramjet engines that fly at low altitudes at high speeds. Taken together, this suggests that while North Korea is attempting to develop hypersonic missiles, it has not yet secured the related technology.

There is an interpretation that the Ministry of National Defense hurried to dispel public anxiety, which has been growing due to concerns about the neutralization of air defense systems following North Korea’s claims of success in hypersonic missile development.

The Ministry of National Defense emphasized in its explanatory materials that "Our military possesses qualitatively superior capabilities," and "The ballistic missile launched by North Korea this time is currently detectable and interceptable by combined South Korea-U.S. assets."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.