Possibility of 20,000 Omicron Cases in March... Jeong Eun-kyung "Emergency Response Plan Prepared" (Comprehensive)

On the 7th, the "Omicron Outbreak Outlook and Future Tasks Discussion" was held at the Korea Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, attended by Jeong Eun-kyeong, Director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (second from the right), among others.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Daehyun] It has been predicted that if the Omicron COVID-19 variant, known to spread faster than previous variants, becomes prevalent, the weekly average number of confirmed cases in March could reach 20,000, with more than 2,000 critical patients.

On the 7th, Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, stated at the 'Omicron Outbreak Outlook and Future Tasks Forum' held at the Korea Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, hosted by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, "It is judged that Omicron could become the dominant strain as early as January or February. This means we are entering a new crisis phase."

Commissioner Jung said, "There is uncertainty regarding the severity rate among high-risk groups, so it is important to quickly establish response strategies for Omicron," and explained, "A rapid increase in confirmed cases could increase the medical burden, so it is necessary to expand home medical care or transform outpatient and inpatient treatment response systems into a sustainable long-term medical system."

She emphasized, "If the number of isolated individuals increases, essential functions such as healthcare, education, and childcare could be paralyzed, and social and economic damages could increase due to disruptions in various workplaces. Therefore, it is also necessary to prepare emergency response plans by sector," adding, "We are preparing measures centered on these points."

"Long-term Response Specialized for Omicron Needed"

The Omicron variant is known to spread 2 to 3 times faster than the existing Delta variant, but its severity rate is about one-third.

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine, who attended the forum, said, "A rapid increase in the scale of the outbreak is expected after the end of this month," adding, "The 7-day moving average could reach 20,000 in early to mid-March, and the number of critical patients hospitalized in mid-March could exceed 2,000."

This diagnosis was made using the 'AI-based Infectious Disease Outbreak Prediction Algorithm and Intervention Strategy Effectiveness Analysis System.' The prediction assumes that the third dose vaccination for those under 60 will be completed by the end of March, oral antiviral treatments will be introduced, and the current strengthened social distancing measures will be gradually eased starting from the 17th.

Professor Jung predicted that with the introduction of oral COVID-19 treatments in Korea from next week, the number of hospitalized and critical patients could be reduced by 15 to 55%.

Regarding social distancing, Professor Jung urged securing procedural legitimacy for the vaccine pass while adjusting its application targets to increase social acceptance. He also suggested that gradual and phased easing of distancing should be aligned with the level of medical capacity and long-term forecast scenarios.

"Sustainable Medical System Needed with Clinic-Level Hospitals Participating in Home Treatment"

Experts called for a long-term approach, including enabling local clinics to treat COVID-19 patients.

Im Seung-kwan, Director of Anseong Hospital at Gyeonggi Provincial Medical Center, said, "Medical services need a major shift from inpatient-based to outpatient-based care," and added, "Patient management should be conducted with authority and responsibility at the city, county, and district levels, while cases such as surgeries, childbirth, dialysis, severe critical patients, and group infections should be supported by metropolitan governments or the central government. Since it is difficult to implement a major shift immediately, pilot projects in specific regions should be conducted for rapid verification."

Kim Jin-yong, Head of Infectious Diseases at Incheon Medical Center, also advised, "If the Omicron variant spreads, there will be many mild cases, but there is no space for these patients to receive care. There is a lack of places where patients can get X-rays and tests if needed. At least, treatment spaces for symptomatic patients should be prepared in advance."

Park Myung-ha, President of the Seoul Medical Association, said, "Effective use of limited medical resources requires a response," explaining, "Hospitals should handle intensive care units, inpatient beds, emergency rooms, and short-term outpatient care, while local clinics should be responsible for home treatment." He added, "A model was created where local clinics, which know their patients best, carefully treat about 10 home-treated patients and respond to emergency situations at night. It is expected that the Seoul-type model will be implemented in some districts from next week, and discussions with Seoul City Hall are ongoing about sharing PCR testing responsibilities at the clinic level."

In this regard, Park Hyang, Head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters' Quarantine Division, stated that the government will play an intermediary role to enable clinic-level hospitals to participate in home treatment and create a sustainable medical system.

Lee Sang-won, Head of Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said that since a surge in isolated individuals could disrupt social activities, a mitigation strategy must be established. He also noted that unlike vaccines, treatments must be administered based on priority, requiring communication to resolve issues of distribution, persuasion, and management.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.