France and Italy Also Hold Presidential Elections... European Political Landscape Changes

[Asia Economy Reporter Seulgina Jo] The political landscape of Europe is changing. This is because Germany, France, and Italy, considered the three major economies of the European Union (EU), are all undergoing leadership transitions. Following Germany, which entered a new administration after former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who ruled for 16 years, stepped down, Italy and France will hold presidential elections in January and April of this year, respectively. While French President Emmanuel Macron, who is completing his five-year term, is considering a re-election bid, the key question in Italy is whether Mario Draghi, the current Prime Minister and the 'top-rated' candidate, will become the new president or remain as prime minister.

◆Will French President Macron Succeed in His Re-election?

The most closely watched election in Europe this year is the French presidential election scheduled for April 10. This election will determine whether President Macron, who has co-led EU leadership with former Chancellor Merkel over the past five years, will secure a second term.

On the 4th (local time), President Macron told Le Parisien in an interview regarding his presidential candidacy, "I want to (run)," but added, "I will announce my decision once my health permits and my own thoughts and the political situation become clear." This effectively confirmed his intention to seek re-election. However, despite the election being only three months away, he refrained from officially declaring his candidacy, saying, "I need to be sure that I can go as far as I want." Local analysts believe that for campaign strategy reasons, President Macron will delay his candidacy announcement until the last moment to maintain his image as 'the president' rather than 'a presidential candidate.'

French President Emmanuel Macron [Photo by Reuters]

Although various polls show President Macron leading, local media unanimously describe the situation as "more uncertain than ever." In the far-right camp, the vote has split with ?ric Zemmour of Reconqu?te running against Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (RN), and the left-wing camp also has multiple candidates. Val?rie P?cresse, Governor of ?le-de-France, who is supported by the center-right conservative camp, has rapidly increased her support since declaring her candidacy and is considered a strong contender against President Macron. Le Parisien described it as "an unpredictable presidential election."

Financial media CNBC analyzed, "The power landscape is changing in the EU's three major economies, which could significantly impact financial markets," adding, "If President Macron succeeds in his re-election in France, it means continuing a pro-European leadership that cooperates with Germany and Italy." France is also scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in the same month.

◆Prime Minister or President... Draghi's Dilemma

Italy will also begin its presidential election starting on the 24th. Current Prime Minister Mario Draghi and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi are expected to compete for the presidency. Current President Sergio Mattarella, whose seven-year term ends on February 3, has officially announced that he will not seek re-election.

The most likely candidate is Prime Minister Draghi, who enjoys overwhelming support. Politico analyzed, "Italy has found a presidential candidate capable of national unity, but the problem is that the person is Prime Minister Draghi," calling it "Italy's power succession dilemma."

Mario Draghi, Prime Minister of Italy
Photo by AP Yonhap News

Draghi, a former President of the European Central Bank (ECB), is praised for maintaining stable responses across the economy and society during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, if he becomes president, the prime minister position will become vacant. This could increase political uncertainty due to elections and other factors, raising concerns that EU structural reforms, investments, and COVID-19 responses might be disrupted. Stefano Cecanti, a lawyer affiliated with the Democratic Party, mentioned the leadership changes in Germany and the upcoming French presidential election, stating, "If Italy enters political uncertainty, our leading position within the EU could be at risk."

In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz officially took office last month, marking a regime change after 16 years. Unlike former Chancellor Merkel, who leaned right, Scholz is a centrist-left figure. Eric Nielsen, Chief Economist at UniCredit, predicted, "The new German government will lead important reforms and promote reforms within the EU." Fortune reported, "The 'Draghi-Macron couple leadership,' the new power holders of the EU, will help fill the leadership void left by former Chancellor Merkel."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.