[Yes and No] Demands for Regime Change Are High, But Not Yet.

The image of the leader of the main opposition party riding a Ddareungi bike to his first day at the National Assembly was a scene that foretold that Lee Jun-seok would be the main figure in this presidential election. This was true regardless of whether Yoon Seok-yeol or Hong Joon-pyo became the final candidate in the People Power Party primary. The situation would have been the same no matter which candidate, Lee Jae-myung or Lee Nak-yon, was on the opposing side.

The ruling party, mired in hypocrisy, and the main opposition party, still burdened with the image of deep-rooted evils and vested interests, face public opinion that finds it difficult to readily support either candidate, approaching nearly half. We refer to these voters as the "moderate" or "non-affiliated" groups, and it is well known that a significant portion of them are from the 2030 youth generation. The fresh emergence of Lee Jun-seok provided the young moderate voters with a "direction to move forward," and the demand for regime change has risen higher than ever.

Where did the button start to be fastened incorrectly? In a public opinion poll conducted on the 28th and 29th of last month at the request of this newspaper, the support for regime continuation was 34.5%. For regime continuation, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, must be elected, and his approval rating was 32.8%. Except for a very small portion, opinions converged on regime continuation under Lee Jae-myung. On the other hand, the public opinion favoring regime change to the People Power Party was 38.1%. However, the support rate for that party’s presidential candidate was only 25.4%. The remaining 12.7% are in a contradictory situation where they want the People Power Party to take power but do not support candidate Yoon Seok-yeol.

This phenomenon is even stronger among those in their 20s. The "regime change support" among people in their 20s is 32.4%, but Yoon’s support rate is only 10.0%. Instead, 47.8% answered that they have no preferred candidate or do not know (for detailed survey information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website). The dominant analysis is that the change of heart among the 2030 generation largely explains the decline in Yoon’s support rate.

Why did candidate Yoon push those who want regime change into a corner of undecided voters? Over time, the image of being an "underprepared candidate" may have been exposed. Somewhat rough language and repeated gaffes likely also had an impact. His indifferent response to Lee Jun-seok, who declared he would withdraw from the election, saying "That is democracy," worsened the situation and was a major mistake. However, the core issue seems to be that Yoon himself fell into the trap of hypocrisy that pushed Lee into politics. His seeming defense of his wife, whose entire career is marked by falsehoods, was a decisive blow. People are asking, "Yoon Seok-yeol, shouldn’t you apply the same standards to your family as you do to the Cho Kuk family?"

Startled by the plummeting support rate that seems beyond remedy, the People Power Party is busy preparing countermeasures such as dismantling the election campaign committee. It is unclear how much changing the surrounding organization can dilute the hypocrisy image that candidate Yoon has been burdened with. However, unless one realistically imagines the candidate replacement theory raised by some quarters, there seems to be no sharp alternative. While it would be ideal for Yoon himself to change first, it has become relatively clear that it will be difficult to conduct the election under the current campaign committee (or Yoon’s core supporters) system, which has failed to properly manage the candidate’s words and movements.

Ultimately, whether conservatism takes power or self-destructs seems to depend on Lee Jun-seok, the only card that can turn the hearts of the 2030 generation. Candidate Yoon must break his pride or sense of debt that makes him unwilling to be swayed by the young party leader, or else he will not survive as a president who starts off unwilling to be influenced. Pursuing Lee Jun-seok’s return in a reasonable manner will be a ray of hope to revive the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. Although the demand for regime change is cooling, it is still higher than the support for regime continuation. Once this is reversed, it will be too late.

Shin Beom-su, Chief of Political Affairs

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.