[AK Opinion Poll] 37% of Voters Say "I am Centrist"... Support: Lee 30.9% > Yoon 24.3% > Ahn 9.3%

Morality vs. Policy Competence
Prioritizing Individuals over Parties
Responsive to Economic Issues Affecting Livelihoods

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In this presidential election, the swing of the centrist vote has emerged as a more important variable than ever. This is not only because of its large proportion but also because its nature is ambiguous. Additionally, it is observed that centrists tend to easily change their preferred candidate depending on emerging issues. This is why each presidential candidate must devise multi-layered strategies to capture this centrist group. Before that, it is necessary to analyze the composition of the population that makes up the centrist group in this election. In short, the centrists are armed with a practical mindset that values policy capability over morality and prioritize individuals over background. They are understood to focus more on economic issues related to livelihood rather than ideological orientations.

◆The Centrist Group That Will Shake the 2022 Presidential Election= In this survey, 37% of respondents identified themselves as centrists. The progressive bloc (very progressive + progressive tendency) accounted for 31.5%, and the conservative bloc (very conservative + conservative tendency) 23.0%. Numerically, the centrists form the largest voter group. The generations with the highest proportion of centrists were those in their 30s (44.1%) and 40s (40.7%). Regionally, the proportion of respondents identifying as centrists was high in the Chungcheong area (51.1%) and Gangwon-Jeju (58.9%). There are also many centrists among white-collar workers (41.9%) and self-employed individuals (44.3%). Notably, the groups with the most centrists?people in their 30s, residents of Chungcheong, and self-employed workers?coincide with the ‘casting vote’ voters that current presidential candidates are most focused on courting.

◆"Neither Lee Jae-myung nor Yoon Seok-youl"= Looking at the presidential candidate support among centrists, Candidate Lee has 30.9%, Candidate Yoon 24.3%, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party 9.3%. This is similar to the overall support trend, but it is notable that Candidate Ahn is performing close to 10%. Among progressives, Candidate Lee has 55.1%, and Candidate Yoon 8.1%. Among conservatives, Candidate Yoon leads with 52.1%, and Candidate Lee has 12.0%. While each leading candidate dominates their respective progressive and conservative bases, the contest is decided among centrists. Thanks to the centrists leaning toward Candidate Lee, he was able to lead in the overall polls with 32.8%, ahead of Candidate Yoon’s 25.4%. What draws attention is that the centrist vote remains fluid.

The combined support for Candidates Lee and Yoon among progressives (63.2%) and conservatives (64.1%) is similar, but among centrists, it remains at 55.2%. Even considering that centrists gave somewhat higher support to Candidate Ahn, a significant portion of centrists still remain ‘floating voters.’

◆What Lies Beneath the Centrist Vote?= Experts interpret the centrist vote in this survey as future-oriented, focusing on their own lives rather than ideology, and paying more attention to individuals than parties. In questions about party support or preferred forces for the next presidential election, centrists chose the People Power Party (21.6%) over the Democratic Party (20.0%), and regime change (36.9%) over regime continuation (32.3%). However, Candidate Lee leads in actual presidential candidate support. This reflects the centrist psychology that, while ideologically opposing the current administration, they may choose the ruling party candidate if they perceive high ‘state management capability.’

The centrists’ freedom from past issues or ideological problems is also confirmed in surveys on Korea-Japan relations and US-China relations. Centrists showed a future-oriented attitude (63.5%) rather than a hardline stance demanding an apology from Japan (32.6%). This centrist opinion is closer to conservatives (future-oriented attitude 66.4%) than progressives (38.4%). On the other hand, regarding the US-China relationship, 60.4% of centrists expressed the view that ‘strategic ambiguity should be maintained.’ This is closer to progressives (74.4%) than conservatives (41.5%).

Park Si-young, CEO of Win-G Korea Consulting, analyzed, "Centrists tend to prioritize their own lives and interests over ideology or national causes," adding, "They are more sensitive to livelihood issues, emphasize the economy, and show a future-oriented perspective." Park said, "The centrist vote depends on who can provide answers to livelihood issues and who can be trusted. Candidate Lee distances himself from the Moon Jae-in administration’s weakness on real estate issues, differentiating himself and lowering the intensity of the regime judgment argument. Therefore, there is skepticism about whether Candidate Yoon’s regime judgment argument will hold until the end."

▶How the Survey Was Conducted

This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-G Korea Consulting and conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and older from the 28th to 29th of last month, with 1,009 respondents and an overall response rate of 10.7%. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number and telephone interview. The sample was extracted with weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey outlines, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.