[New Year Interview] "Pandemic Accelerates Metaverse... Korea's Low Birthrate More Serious Than COVID-19"

Thomas Frey, Director of the Da Vinci Institute

This Year Marks a Transitional Period for Advanced Technologies
Metaverse, Cryptocurrency, Quantum, Space
Family Gatherings in Virtual Spaces in a Few Years
South Korea Needs to Redesign Low Birthrate Policies
Potential to Lead Designer Baby Innovations

Thomas Frey, Director of the Da Vinci Institute

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] "Within the next 3 to 5 years, banks will begin offering deposit, exchange, and remittance services for major cryptocurrencies. Global retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Costco will adopt cryptocurrencies as a payment method."

Thomas Frey, director of the Da Vinci Institute and a leading American futurist known as the "Father of Futurology," named cryptocurrency as the anticipated keyword for 2022 in an interview with Asia Economy on the 3rd, making this prediction.

Frey said, "This year will be a transitional period," listing cryptocurrency along with metaverse (extended virtual world), quantum, automation, and space as candidates for this year's keywords. However, he emphasized, "If I had to choose just one, it would definitely be cryptocurrency." He also predicted that "due to COVID-19, many aspects of our lives have changed," and that the metaverse and gigification (gigified) will accelerate further.

Frey identified key agendas for South Korea's new president, to be elected in the 20th presidential election this year, including improving relations with neighboring countries such as Japan, low birthrate, immigration, and reunification. He advised that South Korea could lead the world in the still unfamiliar fields of 'designer babies' (customized babies born by genetically modifying desired traits) and 'space-based power plants.'

He also assessed issues such as the end of the pandemic, social changes due to COVID-19, future technologies, and challenges facing the Korean economy.

-It has been two full years since the world entered the pandemic. There was hope that vaccination would be the key to ending COVID-19, but new cases and deaths continue to rise steadily. Do you think the pandemic will end this year?

▲In short, 'No.' COVID-19 will remain with us for several more years. However, we need to observe when COVID-19 will no longer be a major threat in our lives. So far, the world has focused on how to prevent COVID-19 but has only achieved part of the expected results. Going forward, focusing on treatments aimed at symptom relief will be a more realistic solution. In the long term, both prevention and treatment must be emphasized. With proper treatments, COVID-19 cases will decrease to the level of colds or flu, and related news will disappear from front pages.

-COVID-19 has greatly changed our daily lives. Some experts say the pandemic has accelerated the future. Do you agree?

▲I agree. The pandemic has accelerated the arrival of some aspects of the future but has also delayed others. For example, our institute successfully operated coworking facilities before the pandemic but had to close them afterward. The problem is not unique to us; many coworking spaces worldwide have shut down due to COVID-19. Coworking spaces are productive work environments where people exchange ideas and collaborate. Once the spread of COVID-19 subsides, coworking spaces will be the first to fill vacancies in urban areas. This means the nature of work is shifting to a hybrid form of in-person and virtual participation. The metaverse is a hot topic, and in a few years, our avatars will attend work meetings in virtual spaces and meet family, friends, and colleagues who are far away.

-The pandemic has changed not only work methods and patterns but also perceptions of work. How will workplace life change in the next 5 to 10 years?

▲Technology has empowered gig workers?freelancers who contract for short-term, one-off jobs as needed by employers. More workers will become gig workers in the coming years. Providing more freedom in the work environment while ensuring the ability to choose meaningful work aligns with the demands of today's young people. Instead of a boss deciding every detail of the work, gig workers can lead their own tasks. Through this, they will gain flexibility, freedom, purpose, meaning, and the ability to determine their own destiny.

-The word of the year was 'pandemic' in 2020 and 'vaccine' in 2021. What will be the word of the year for 2022?

▲This year will likely be a transitional year. The words of the year will be 'cryptocurrency,' 'metaverse,' 'quantum,' 'conspiracy,' 'automation,' and 'space,' but if I had to pick just one, it would definitely be cryptocurrency.

"Cryptocurrency Will Be Widely Used in Finance and Distribution"

-Governments such as China are regulating cryptocurrencies, while central banks worldwide are researching digital currencies. Do you think cryptocurrency could be the future of finance?

▲China's regulation of cryptocurrency will cause a large-scale brain drain. Appropriate regulation is reasonable, but a total ban is shortsighted. Many large companies are preparing for cryptocurrency. Within the next 3 to 5 years, banks will offer cryptocurrency services including exchange, deposits, and remittances. Around the same time, retailers like Amazon, Lotte, Walmart, Hyundai, Home Depot, and Costco will adopt cryptocurrency as a payment method. By 2030, mortgage loans and car installments using cryptocurrency will appear, and major card companies such as Visa and Mastercard will support multiple cryptocurrencies. By 2035, most bank revenues will be generated from cryptocurrency transactions.

-American billionaires like Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, are engaged in a 'space race.' Do you think their efforts will popularize space tourism? Should the space industry be further activated?

▲The middle class always aspires to what the wealthy do. Space, still a billionaire's playground, is no exception. However, satellite communications and TV are now outdated technologies. Even superficially, space tourism products are already emerging. If hotels and power plants appear in space and human habitats are established, the space industry will explode in growth. Interest in space depends on how connected people can be to it. As more people own property such as real estate in space, the space industry will gain momentum. Also, when flights between Earth and space become available and products like minerals mined on Mars start selling, soon couples will be holding weddings on Mars.

"South Korea's Next President Must Carefully Manage Relations with Neighboring Countries"

-South Korea suffers from low birthrate and aging population. Last year, South Korea's total population growth rate hit a record low since statistics began in 1949. How can the Korean economy regain vitality amid worsening fiscal soundness?

▲There is no economy without people. After the pandemic, people have lost the desire to raise children. While it is easy to think about those who died from COVID-19, it is difficult to consider the children who were not born because of it. South Korea's low birthrate is a much more serious problem than COVID-19. It requires more sophisticated solutions than vaccination or border restrictions. During COVID-19, countries chose authoritarian or top-down solutions. However, raising the birthrate requires a long-term bottom-up approach. The advantages of raising children must far outweigh the disadvantages. In South Korea, all systems that dampen enthusiasm for parenting must be redesigned, and young couples must be provided with sufficient incentives.

-South Korea's next presidential election is scheduled for March next year. The country's future will largely depend on who becomes president. What issues or agendas should the next president focus on?

▲South Korea needs to carefully manage relations with neighboring countries, especially building a closer relationship with Japan. Low birthrate is a cultural and institutional issue, so solutions are not easy. Women hold the key to Korea's future. Although not yet widely recognized, designer babies will soon become central. South Korea can lead the world in the designer baby field both technologically and ethically. South Korea is also in a favorable position to take the lead in space-based power plants, where China, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. are competing. With the birthrate continuously declining, someone must decide on immigration to create future labor forces. If labor does not come from within, it must come from elsewhere.

Additionally, 'imbalanced cities' can be mentioned. Great cities are never balanced cities. They were great because they were imbalanced. In the global stage that focuses on distinctiveness, uniform cities have little meaning. In the U.S., New York is known for finance, Los Angeles and San Francisco for entertainment and technology industries respectively. South Korea should also focus on imbalances that make each city stand out in various ways.

▶Who is Thomas Frey= Named the world's top futurist by Google in 2006, he predicts the future based on his understanding of technology. He worked as a computer engineer at IBM for over 20 years and has received more than 270 awards in design and technology fields. He predicted in various reports that "2 billion jobs will disappear by 2030" and "half of the world's universities will vanish by 2030." His future reports have influenced policies at NASA and Hewlett-Packard (HP). He is also a member of the U.S. Triple Nine Society, a club for people with the highest IQs. His representative books include "Conversations with the Future" and "Epiphany Z."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.