US: Russian Military Capable of Invading Ukraine with Over 100,000 Troops and 100 Tactical Battalions

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] U.S. intelligence agencies have once again warned of the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, informing European authorities that a large-scale concentration of Russian military forces is underway near the border.

Recently, tensions between Russia and Europe have escalated following international criticism over Russia's interception of its own satellite, which raised concerns about space debris, as well as suspicions of Russia limiting gas supplies to Europe. In this context, the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has also been raised, signaling a worsening relationship between Russia and Western countries.

"Invasion Possible as Early as January Next Year... Largest Reserve Force Mobilization Since Soviet Dissolution"

According to Bloomberg News on the 21st (local time), U.S. intelligence agencies informed European countries that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine, and that Russian forces are ready to swiftly enter Ukrainian territory once President Vladimir Putin makes the decision.

U.S. intelligence suggests that President Putin may invade Ukraine as early as the beginning of next year.

Ukraine's intelligence agencies also foresee that Russia could launch an attack as early as January or February next year.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

In response, Ukraine's Defense Minister visited the United States last week to request support, and the Foreign Minister also visited Brussels, the capital of Belgium and headquarters of the European Union (EU), to discuss the situation with EU authorities.

According to U.S. intelligence, the Russian military appears to be planning an invasion of Ukraine using about 100 tactical battalions and over 100,000 troops stationed in Crimea, near the Russian border, and the Belarus border.

Especially notable is that when Russian forces withdrew from the Ukrainian border area last April, they left behind a significant amount of military equipment, which, if reused, could enable Russia to conduct a faster entry operation, according to U.S. authorities.

Sources also reported that Russia has mobilized tens of thousands of reservists, the largest scale since the collapse of the Soviet Union. These reservists are expected to carry out occupation operations in areas passed through by Russian forces, sources said.

Prior to this, Russia is also reportedly conducting preparatory work such as manipulating public opinion and spreading fake news to create unease against Ukraine.

Earlier, President Putin dismissed the possibility of an invasion last week and warned Western countries raising such suspicions not to cross the red line.

U.S. authorities have not yet determined Russia's specific intentions. Bloomberg News reported that it is likely President Putin has not yet made a decision.

Previously, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, "I cannot speak to Russia's intentions," adding, "We do not know their intentions."

Concerns Over International Condemnation and Sanctions Expansion Suggest Full-Scale War Unlikely

Considering Russia's domestic and international situation, some analyses suggest that President Putin is unlikely to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

If an invasion of Ukraine actually occurs, Russia risks severe damage to its economy due to widespread international condemnation and additional sanctions.

One source emphasized the need for the U.S. and European countries to quickly agree on joint response operations to deter President Putin's intentions to attack Ukraine. On the same day, the French Foreign Minister warned that if Russia crosses the Ukrainian border, it would face "serious consequences."

However, the U.S. is currently in a difficult position to provide military support to Ukraine. President Joe Biden is focusing on addressing inflation issues in the U.S., and with his approval ratings recently declining, it is challenging to intervene in foreign issues.

Therefore, the U.S. warning about the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is interpreted as an attempt to build a united front with allies to prepare additional sanctions rather than to engage in full-scale military action.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.