[Lee Myung-ho's Future Preview] Humanity's Crisis 'Climate Change' and the US-China Hegemony War

COVID-19 Followed by Climate Crisis... China Skips UN Climate Change Convention
Deepening US-China Conflict... Cold War Restarting
System Competition Leads to Civilizational Decline... Carbon Emissions More Important Than Hegemony Rivalry

Although the COVID-19 crisis has not been completely resolved, humanity is now concerned about another crisis: climate change. Having experienced the unexpected event of COVID-19, no one can deny that another crisis could occur. Climate change can no longer be postponed as a future issue. Leaders from over 200 countries are meeting at the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), but expectations for effective measures remain low. Despite more than 30 years of international discussions and cooperation on climate change, there have been no clear achievements. The only notable outcome has been the confirmation of the severity of climate change. Scientific measurements over several decades have revealed that the 1-degree Celsius rise in global temperature within less than 200 years since the Industrial Revolution in 1850 is scientifically linked to the use of fossil fuels. If the current trend continues, by 2040 the global temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-Industrial Revolution levels. By the end of this century, the increase could reach 2.6 degrees Celsius, leading to irreversible climate disasters.

At this conference, the absence of the leaders of China and Russia, ranked first and fourth in global greenhouse gas emissions respectively, drew attention. The fact that China is the origin of COVID-19 and the largest greenhouse gas emitter may have contributed to its absence. However, considering that China has not been passive in reducing greenhouse gas emissions recently, the reason for its absence must be sought elsewhere. It should be seen as a protest by the Chinese government against the international pressure led by the United States. This protest signals that another incident may occur in the future. The U.S.-China conflict could escalate into a global crisis, including Northeast Asia, where South Korea is located.

China grew within the framework of the U.S. global strategy. During the Cold War confrontation between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the U.S. pursued a strategy to isolate and pressure the Soviet Union. The most important strategy was to drive a wedge between the two socialist countries, the Soviet Union and China. After the Cultural Revolution weakened China’s economic momentum, China sought to enter the U.S.-led global economy by promoting reform and opening up in 1978. China officially established diplomatic relations with the U.S. in 1979. After establishing relations, China accepted U.S. capital and technology and grew into the world’s factory. The U.S. imported cheap Chinese goods and enjoyed a more affluent consumer lifestyle. Investors earned more money as the market expanded. Of course, during this process, labor-intensive light industry and manufacturing in the U.S. lost competitiveness, causing many job losses. Industrial cities suffered decline. The decline of U.S. manufacturing was not simply due to competition from high-wage industries but occurred within this international strategic context. The Soviet Union, isolated according to the U.S. strategic framework, lost economic power due to excessive defense spending and collapsed in 1991.

About 40 years after U.S.-China diplomatic relations and China’s reform and opening up, China has achieved economic growth that threatens the U.S. China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was only 31% of the U.S. level in 2008. Within about 10 years, China raised its GDP to 70% of the U.S., becoming a true major two-country (G2) power. China’s industrial structure has shifted from light industry and heavy industry to advanced industries, entering a stage of competition with the U.S. It is predicted that by 2030, China may surpass the U.S. in economic size and become the G1 country. Military power is also expected to surpass the U.S. around 2050. The U.S.’s position as the leader of the world order with overwhelming economic and military power is being threatened. The U.S., which cooperated with China to defeat the Soviet Union, is now in a position to check China. The relatively weakened U.S. is now pursuing a strategy of attracting allies. The Joe Biden administration has shifted from Donald Trump’s strategy of fighting China alone to one of rallying allies. The U.S. is drawing European countries into efforts to contain China. Meanwhile, the joint absence of China and Russia from the COP26 climate change conference appears to show renewed cooperation between China and Russia against U.S. strategy. The Cold War, which ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, is beginning again.

The Cold War was a tragedy for humanity after the 1950s. The competition between systems was not a friendly sports competition but led to the decline of humanity and justification of slaughter. Economic competition to promote a system led not to improved economic life for citizens but to exaggerated national power, military competition, and internal ideological control, causing the decline of human civilization. Conflicts between and within countries around the world turned into ideological disputes, leading to endless civil wars and conflicts. Even dictatorial regimes that controlled and monitored citizens were legitimized if they shared the same ideology. The Soviet Union eventually collapsed due to inefficient economic control and citizen surveillance amid system competition. Subsequently, economic cooperation between the U.S. and China contributed to a peaceful period. The growth of populous China improved the lives of all humanity. The world enjoyed cheap consumer goods. However, this affluent consumer lifestyle accelerated global warming, and China became the largest carbon emitter.

While climate change threatens the Earth, the U.S.-China hegemonic competition and confrontation are escalating to extremes. What humanity desires is not a competition over which country is stronger. Humanity wants to see which country reduces carbon emissions more and saves the Earth from crisis. Leaders of all countries would agree that humanity respects and follows countries that lead in reducing carbon emissions, not those that are simply powerful.

Lee Myung-ho, Vice Chairman, The Korean Association of Future Studies

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.