Convention Effect: Yoon Leads Lee by 11.8%p... '20s and Moderate Hong Supporters Also Uniting'

Yoon Seok-yeol's Approval Rating Rises by 10.6%p
Significant Increase Among 20s and Centrist Groups
Cautious Observation Needed on Chemical Bond with Hong Joon-pyo's Supporters

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In the first public opinion poll conducted after the presidential election lineup for next year was finalized, Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, saw a significant rise in support, surpassing Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, by a margin beyond the margin of error. This is analyzed to be due to the convention effect (the phenomenon of rising approval ratings after a political event), including the dramatic presidential primary race that was unpredictable.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) commissioned by TBS on the 5th and 6th of this month targeting 1,009 people nationwide aged 18 and over, in the survey on 'next presidential candidate support,' candidate Yoon received 43.0%, ahead of candidate Lee who received 31.2%. Ahn Cheol-soo, the People Power Party presidential candidate, received 4.7%, Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, 3.7%, and Kim Dong-yeon, the preparatory committee chairman of the New Wave party, 1.4%. In this survey, Yoon's approval rating rose by 10.6%, while Lee's approval rating fell by 2%.

Notably, Yoon's approval rating among those in their 20s rose by 18.7 percentage points compared to the previous survey (conducted on the 29th-30th of last month), reaching 34.3%, and the centrist group also increased by 16.7 percentage points to 48.4%. The significant rise in support among the centrist group and those in their 20s, where Yoon was relatively considered weaker, suggests that a considerable portion of Hong's supporters shifted their support to Yoon. However, since the survey was conducted on the day of and the day after the primary, it is necessary to observe over time whether the supporters chemically unite. Another point of interest is that in the previous survey, respondents who chose other candidates accounted for 18.1%, but this time it dropped by 11.4 percentage points to 6.7%. This can be interpreted as the undecided supporters moving toward Yoon.

In the survey on the 'nature of the next presidential election,' the voice for regime change increased by 2.1% compared to the previous survey (October 8) to 53.6%. The theory of regime continuation decreased by 2.7% to 37%. This public opinion poll was conducted using a wireless automated response method utilizing virtual phone numbers (safe numbers) for mobile phones. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.