[Politics, That Day...] 'Ahn Cheol-soo + Sim Sang-jung', Memories of 9 Million Votes in the Presidential Election

2017 Presidential Election: 7 Million Chose Ahn Cheol-soo, 2 Million Chose Sim Sang-jung
Voting Experience from Past Elections a Hidden Variable in 2022 Presidential Race

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, on that day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

One of the key points to watch in the 2022 presidential race is the performance of the 'third political forces,' not the Democratic Party of Korea or the People Power Party.

The People’s Party has confirmed its leader Ahn Cheol-soo as the next presidential candidate. Earlier, the Justice Party had selected Representative Sim Sang-jung as its presidential candidate. Two politicians who ran in the 2017 presidential election have emerged again as constants in this presidential race.

How many voters supported politicians Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung as president in the 2017 presidential election?

Ahn Cheol-soo, the People’s Party candidate, received 6,998,342 votes (21.41% of the vote) in the last presidential election. Nearly 7 million people nationwide chose politician Ahn Cheol-soo as the next president.

Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo was especially a threatening presence in the traditional strongholds of the Democratic Party. In Gwangju and Jeollanam-do, more than 30% of voters chose politician Ahn Cheol-soo as the next president. In an election where President Moon Jae-in’s election was expected, a considerable number of voters in Honam, not other regions, supported candidate Ahn Cheol-soo.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung recorded 2,017,458 votes (6.17% of the vote) in the last presidential election. Receiving over 2 million votes is the highest vote count in the history of progressive party presidential challenges.

In the 2002 presidential election, Kwon Young-gil, the Democratic Labor Party candidate, received 957,148 votes. Considering that even in that election, which left the political catchphrase “Has your livelihood improved?” he could not surpass the 1 million vote barrier, Sim Sang-jung’s performance in the last presidential election is a record-breaking result.

Candidate Sim Sang-jung received votes evenly nationwide, achieving around 7 percentage points in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon respectively.

If the votes gained by candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung in the last presidential election are simply added together, it exceeds 9 million votes. If candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung show considerable competitiveness again this time, how will the presidential race unfold?

The experience of voters directly choosing someone at the polling station greatly influences their next vote. Voters tend to hesitate to make a choice that denies their past choice, even to prove that their choice was correct.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, it is noteworthy that the nature of the presidential elections in 2017 and 2022 is different. The last presidential election was essentially a race where the winner was predictable. The fight for second place was more interesting than who would take first place. But this presidential election is different. Neither the ruling nor the opposition party is in a comfortable position to be confident of winning.

There is a possibility of an ultra-close race with a 51% to 49% vote ratio. If the ruling party and the main opposition party consolidate their votes in the presidential election, the third political forces will face difficulties. Discussions on alliances and unification among presidential candidates may become the focus of attention regardless of the candidates’ own intentions.

With the People Power Party’s presidential candidate selection on the 5th, the matchups between the ruling and opposition parties are virtually finalized, and the trajectories of candidates Ahn Cheol-soo, Sim Sang-jung, and former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon are expected to be variables that will determine the 2022 presidential election landscape.

Changes in the political structure also affect the presidential race. In 2017, the full run of candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung ultimately placed more burden on the Democratic Party side. However, in the 2022 presidential election, it could lead to a ‘division of opposition votes.’

Will the voters who chose politicians Ahn Cheol-soo and Sim Sang-jung as the next president in the last presidential election make the same choice this time? Or will they support different figures for president?

If they choose other candidates, who will those be? Will unification be achieved ahead of the presidential election? If so, what combination of unification will it result in? Another presidential race led by the third political forces has already begun.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.