Japan Yomiuri "LDP May Fail to Maintain Majority"... Uncertainty Over Number 2 Election

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] There are ongoing observations that it is difficult to guarantee the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will secure a majority of seats in the Japanese House of Representatives general election scheduled for the 31st.

On the 29th, Yomiuri Shimbun reported that "the situation is delicate for the LDP to maintain a majority (233 seats) of the total House of Representatives seats on its own."

According to the report, among the total 289 single-member districts (constituencies), the number of districts where LDP candidates hold an advantage decreased by 5 to 113 compared to the early stages of the election campaign. Conversely, the number of districts where they are at a disadvantage increased by 14 to 60.

Yomiuri diagnosed that about 40% of the remaining districts are closely contested, with 104 LDP candidates engaged in fierce battles at the crossroads of winning or losing.

This analysis is based on a telephone opinion poll (with 182,039 respondents) conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun from the 26th to the 28th, along with collected reporting information.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) also analyzed on the 29th that the LDP is "contesting" whether it can maintain a solo majority of 233 seats or more.

Nikkei interpreted that for the LDP to secure a solo majority, it must win half of the closely contested districts, which account for about 40% of the constituencies.

There are also observations that even prominent politicians cannot guarantee their election.

According to Yomiuri's survey results, Akira Amari, the LDP's official number two and Secretary-General, is included among the 104 closely contested candidates.

He is one of the key figures in the LDP administration, known as the so-called '3A' along with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Deputy President Taro Aso.

The dominant view in the Japanese media is that the LDP's seats will decrease from the previous 276 and that securing a majority cannot be guaranteed in this general election. However, both newspapers forecast that there will be no difficulty in maintaining a majority when combined with the coalition partner Komeito's seats.

Yomiuri analyzed that the LDP-Komeito coalition is aiming for a 'stable majority' (244 seats). A 'stable majority' means holding all 17 standing committee chair positions and securing an equal number of members as the opposition in all standing committees.

The LDP has achieved a solo majority in three general elections held since 2012 and, together with Komeito, has held more than two-thirds of the total House of Representatives seats.

This general election will newly elect all 465 seats of the House of Representatives, combining 289 single-member districts (constituencies) nationwide and 176 proportional representation seats across 11 regions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.