The Hidden Calculations Behind People Power Party's Presidential Primary Polls: "Virtual Matchups Lack Discriminatory Power"

When Using Virtual Matchup Method, Variance Between Candidates Likely to Decrease

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The most widely discussed method for determining the People Power Party's presidential candidate through public opinion polls is the 'virtual one-on-one match-up.' However, this approach has been criticized for its lack of 'discriminatory power.' If the discriminatory power of the polls is weak, the influence of party members' opinions, which account for 50% of the primary results, could increase.

Currently, the People Power Party is seriously considering a one-on-one match-up format between Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, and each of the four People Power Party presidential hopefuls as the method for the primary opinion polls. The party's primary election commission has stated that it will not introduce a reverse selection prevention clause but will conduct polls asking about 'competitiveness.'

Experts commonly point out that such polls have low discriminatory power between candidates. In fact, the NBS opinion poll conducted by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (surveyed from the 18th to the 20th, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level; for details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website) conducted virtual match-ups between the four People Power Party candidates, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, and Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party’s presidential candidate, against the Democratic Party’s candidate Lee. In this poll, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl trailed Lee by 1 percentage point, Representative Hong Joon-pyo by 3 points, former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong by 12 points, and former Representative Yoo Seung-min by 14 points. The difference in 'competitiveness' between the first and fourth candidates was only 13 percentage points.

Moreover, if Ahn and Sim are excluded from the polls, considering the possibility that the support rates of former Governor Won and former Representative Yoo, who appeal to centrist voters, might rise, the gap between candidates is likely to narrow even further. Kim Jae-won, a Supreme Council member of the People Power Party, also mentioned on a radio show that "there is not much difference between the first and fourth place" and that "the gap is narrowing." Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice and an expert in opinion polling, analyzed that "in the case of four one-on-one virtual match-ups, the gap between candidates decreases, whereas in a single question format where one candidate is chosen among four, the gap can widen." In other words, in a poll where respondents are asked to select the 'suitability' of the four People Power Party candidates, the gap between first place (former Prosecutor General Yoon at 25%) and fourth place (former Governor Won at 6%) widened to 19 percentage points.

Judging by the question format alone, it is reasonable that the leading candidates, former Prosecutor General Yoon and Representative Hong, prefer the four-choice multiple-choice poll format that can widen the gap between candidates. However, Representative Hong prefers the four-choice format, while former Prosecutor General Yoon favors the virtual one-on-one match-up, showing a division in their positions. The People Power Party primary reflects 50% from opinion polls and 50% from party member votes. Yoon, who believes he has an advantage in party member voting, wants to reduce the discriminatory power of the polls, whereas Hong, who thinks he is performing better in general public opinion than among party members, prefers the four-choice format with greater discriminatory power.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.