Kishida Set to Become Japan's Next Prime Minister, Likely to Continue Abe and Suga's Policy Line

▲Fumio Kishida, who became Japan's next Prime Minister [Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] The basic policy direction of the Kishida Fumio administration, which will become the next Japanese government after being elected as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president, is expected not to deviate significantly from the Abe line.

Kishida was elected as the 27th president of the LDP after gaining an advantage in the first round of the ruling party's presidential election held on the 29th and then decisively defeating Administrative Reform Minister Kono Taro in the runoff vote.

He is scheduled to be elected as the 100th Prime Minister of Japan at the extraordinary Diet session convened next month and then form a new cabinet.

The policy direction of the Kishida Cabinet can be inferred from the statements he made during the LDP presidential election process.

First, it is expected that he will continue to push for constitutional revision, which was actively pursued but did not bear fruit under the second Abe Cabinet launched in December 2012.

Kishida, who also served as the longest-serving Foreign Minister in the second Abe Cabinet, expressed his intention to do his best to realize the existing constitutional amendment proposals presented by the LDP, which include the establishment of an emergency clause and the explicit mention of the Self-Defense Forces, during his term.

This reveals his intention to virtually inherit the Abe line on the issue of constitutional revision.

In the field of diplomacy and security, he is expected to continue the existing conservative LDP government's policy focusing on the alliance with the United States.

At the same time, there is a high probability that he will maintain a tough stance against China, which is in confrontation with the U.S. over technological hegemony and other issues.

▲Fumio Kishida [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

During this election process, he pledged to enact an Economic Security Promotion Act to secure important materials such as semiconductors and prevent technology leakage, and to establish a ministerial post in charge, as measures keeping China in mind.

He also promised to create a prime ministerial advisor position dedicated to human rights issues in China and other countries.

As a measure to respond efficiently to the intrusion of Chinese Coast Guard vessels into the territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands (Chinese name Diaoyu Islands), he emphasized the need to revise the Coast Guard Law and the Self-Defense Forces Law.

However, on the other hand, ahead of the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan next year, he also stressed the need for dialogue between the two countries' leaders, indicating that he is likely to maintain the existing administration's diplomatic line that values stable relations with China, the territorial dispute counterpart over the Senkaku Islands.

He is expected to show an active stance at the level of the Abe administration regarding securing the capability for preemptive strikes on enemy bases and increasing defense spending.

Regarding the abduction issue with North Korea, he is also expected to follow the Abe and Suga administrations' line of seeking solutions through summit meetings.

Kishida expressed that meeting directly with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un is an important option concerning this issue.

Regarding domestic issues such as COVID-19 response, he is expected to pursue a more aggressive policy.

As a measure to overcome COVID-19, he proposed the establishment of a Health Crisis Management Agency, aiming for zero medical refugees.

He also pledged economic measures worth tens of trillions of yen (hundreds of trillions of won) to support businesses struggling due to COVID-19.

▲Fumio Kishida [Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

As the framework of economic policy, it is expected that he will generally maintain the framework of Abenomics, which focuses on escaping deflation.

This is because he expressed his intention to maintain the three pillars of Abenomics: bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and growth strategy.

However, he also pointed out that the benefits of Abenomics have been concentrated only on large corporations and have not led to wage increases, suggesting a shift away from neoliberalism and indicating that he will seek improvement measures.

He advocates a new Japanese-style capitalism aimed at doubling income, emphasizing redistribution and reducing disparities for people struggling due to COVID-19.

Regarding the nuclear phase-out issue, which became a contentious topic following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, he indicated a policy direction distancing from nuclear phase-out by stating, "It is important to promote the restart of nuclear power plants based on the world's highest safety standards."

On the issue of recognizing a matrilineal emperor, one of the important domestic issues Japan faces, Kishida shares the conservative camp's position, stating, "It should not be considered."

Regarding the Yasukuni Shrine visits, a diplomatic conflict issue with neighboring countries such as South Korea and China, he has shown a cautious attitude.

When asked whether he would visit Yasukuni Shrine after becoming prime minister, he said, "Expressing respect to those who gave their precious lives for the country is very important as a political leader," and added that he would consider an appropriate way to show respect once he becomes prime minister.

Meanwhile, regarding internal reforms within the LDP, since he emphasized limiting executive terms to 'one term of one year, with a maximum of three consecutive terms,' it is expected that he will actively promote generational change.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.