Japan's Next Prime Minister 'Dovish' Kishida Elected... Japan-Korea Relations Expected to Remain Difficult

▲Fumio Kishida [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Although Fumio Kishida, former LDP Policy Research Council chairman with a moderate stance, was elected as the 'post-Suga' leader, prospects for improving South Korea-Japan relations remain bleak.

This is because the new prime minister's views on key issues such as South Korean court rulings on forced labor and comfort women compensation, and Japan's retaliatory export restrictions, do not differ significantly from the existing Japanese government position.

On the 29th, Kishida, elected as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan's majority party, and scheduled to be appointed prime minister on the 4th of next month, is classified as a 'dove' within the conservative LDP who values South Korea-Japan relations.

However, under the LDP's long-term ruling system, it is difficult to expect major policy changes from a mere leadership change within the party, and many experts analyze that public opinion in Japan remains unfriendly toward South Korea.

Above all, Kishida's personal views on forced labor and comfort women issues do not significantly deviate from the Suga administration's stance, which claims that South Korea is responsible for causing the problems.

Previously, Kishida served as Foreign Minister for 4 years and 8 months under the Abe cabinet and led the 2015 South Korea-Japan comfort women agreement. There is also a sense of dissatisfaction toward the South Korean government for not implementing the agreement he painstakingly crafted.

On the 18th, during a Japan National Press Club discussion, he stated that unlike South Korea, Japan has fully implemented the comfort women agreement and mentioned that "the ball is in South Korea's court" to resolve the issue.

Additionally, at a Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan (FCCJ) press conference on the 13th, he expressed a negative view on Japan's continued apologies to neighboring countries regarding acts committed during the Pacific War.

These remarks make it difficult to expect a smooth resolution of historical issues under the new administration.

Moreover, during the one-year Suga administration, despite two foreign ministerial talks and six director-general level consultations between South Korea and Japan, the gap over historical issues has not only failed to narrow but has tended to harden.

The South Korean government repeatedly proposed respecting court rulings and jointly seeking ways to realize victims' rights, but Japan maintained that compensation issues were fully resolved by the 1965 South Korea-Japan Claims Agreement and the 2015 comfort women agreement, asserting that compensation rulings violate international law and that South Korea must propose solutions.

Recently, Japan has even shown signs of regressing in historical awareness, such as diluting the forced nature of forced labor and comfort women in textbooks.

In this context, with the South Korean court issuing the first order to sell seized Japanese company assets to compensate forced labor victims, the clock is ticking toward cashing in on what Japan considers the red line in South Korea-Japan relations.

Furthermore, Japan's decision during Suga's tenure to release contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean has added to the challenges both countries must resolve.

The Moon Jae-in administration aims to restore South Korea-Japan relations at least to the state before Japan's export restrictions in July 2019 during its term, but with the presidential election scheduled for March next year, time and political capacity appear limited.

However, cooperation is expected to continue on the North Korean nuclear issue.

Japan has communicated with South Korea on the North Korean nuclear and missile threats that pose a danger to Japan, and South Korea also needs Japan's cooperation or at least tacit approval for progress in the Korean Peninsula peace process.

In particular, as the United States, which Japan is most concerned about, aligns its North Korea policy with South Korea, Japan is expected to follow suit to some extent.

Additionally, it is reported that Japan also agrees on the need to restore people-to-people exchanges, which have stagnated due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.