Missile Launch Three Days After Kim Yo-jong's Statement... North Korea Maintains 'Hard-Soft Strategy'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy reporters Inho Yoo, military specialist Nakgyu Yang, and Jieun Lee] On the morning of the 28th, North Korea launched a short-range missile into the East Sea. This occurred just three days after Kim Yo-jong, Vice Director of the North Korean Workers' Party, issued a statement expressing a progressive attitude toward improving inter-Korean relations. The Blue House immediately convened the National Security Council (NSC), and President Moon Jae-in instructed, "Analyze North Korea's statement and missile launch situation comprehensively and meticulously to prepare a response plan."

Immediately after North Korea's missile launch that day, the Blue House held an emergency meeting of the NSC Standing Committee chaired by National Security Office Director Suh Hoon to discuss response measures. The NSC Standing Committee members expressed regret over the launch, which took place at a time when stability on the Korean Peninsula is critically important, and agreed to closely monitor North Korea's movements and consult closely with related countries.

The exact specifications of the missile have not yet been disclosed. Military authorities stated that a detailed analysis is needed to determine whether the missile was a cruise missile or a ballistic missile. The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced, "At around 6:40 a.m. today, North Korea launched one short-range missile eastward from the Mupeong-ri area in Jagang Province, and the South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies are conducting a detailed analysis of additional information." This missile launch came 13 days after North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile into the East Sea from a train on the 15th. If it is a ballistic missile, it would constitute a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Diplomatic circles interpret North Korea's missile launch just three days after the 'Kim Yo-jong statement' as an attempt to shift the ball back to the South Korean government and the Biden administration for the resumption of inter-Korean and North Korea-U.S. talks. In this context, Kim Song, North Korea's ambassador to the United Nations, stated during his speech at the 76th UN General Assembly general debate held at the UN Headquarters in New York on the 27th (local time), "If the United States truly desires peace and reconciliation, it must take the first step toward abandoning its hostile policy against North Korea by permanently suspending joint military exercises and the deployment of strategic weapons on and around the Korean Peninsula," demanding the withdrawal of double standards. This aligns with Kim Yo-jong's recent statement calling for the withdrawal of hostile policies and double standards.

In this context, there is speculation that this missile launch was intended to test the South Korean side's reaction to the double standards regarding missile launches. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the Graduate School of North Korean Studies, said, "It appears that North Korea chose to first test the South's response to the abolition of double standards through the missile launch," adding, "North Korea's future scenario may include restoring inter-Korean communication lines or possibly conducting another missile launch to further gauge the South's reaction."

Some analysts predict that North Korea is maintaining its existing hardline-softline strategy of 'offering dialogue followed by military provocations,' suggesting that no dramatic change in the situation on the Korean Peninsula is likely. Although North Korea showed willingness to improve relations by restoring inter-Korean communication lines before this year's South Korea-U.S. military exercises, the exercises proceeded as scheduled, and North Korea responded with a warning statement from Kim Yo-jong, followed by the suspension of communication lines and missile launches, demonstrating continued military provocations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.