[4 Experts Urgent Diagnosis] Confirmed Cases Peak Next Week... "With With-Corona Transition, Surge to 10,000-20,000 Range"

"'n-th Infection' Will Continue... Limits of Epidemiological Investigation"

[Asia Economy reporters Seo So-jeong and Kim Ji-hee] As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases first reached the 3,000 range, concerns are growing that the record high will be broken again next week as the impact of the Chuseok holiday begins in earnest. With the vaccination completion rate still lingering in the 40% range and the recent increase in 'breakthrough infections' occurring after vaccination, the trend of a surge in confirmed cases is expected to continue for the time being. Experts predict that if the country transitions to 'With Corona' coexistence without controlling the number of confirmed cases, daily cases could soar to 10,000 to 20,000.

3,273 New Cases on the 25th, Record High... "More Increase Next Week"

The Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) reported that as of midnight on the 25th, 3,273 new COVID-19 cases were confirmed, bringing the total to 298,402. As the effect of reduced testing during the Chuseok holiday period disappeared, the number of confirmed cases, which had set a record again at the 2,400 level the previous day, broke the record once more in just one day. Compared to last Saturday a week ago, this is nearly 1,200 more cases.

Professor Kim Shin-woo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Kyungpook National University Hospital said, "Gatherings to prepare for the holiday started even before Chuseok, and meetings among unvaccinated people also took place," expressing concern that "the occurrence of cases in the 3,000 range will continue for another one to two weeks, causing continuous 'nth generation infections'." It is expected that next week, when the nationwide mass movement due to the Chuseok holiday fully unfolds, will see even more confirmed cases than the previous week.

Professor Kim explained, "It could be risky until early to mid-October," adding, "The transmission power of the Delta variant is a wild card; in the past, it was droplet transmission, but now it should be considered airborne transmission." He particularly warned, "If we switch to With Corona amid a surge in confirmed cases, daily cases could reach 10,000 to 20,000 within just a few weeks." He also pointed out that the current healthcare system would not be able to withstand the situation if the transition to With Corona occurs without controlling confirmed cases. Professor Kim emphasized, "For With Corona to be feasible, the vaccination rate must rise to 80-90%."

Professor Chun Eun-mi of the Department of Respiratory Medicine at Ewha Mokdong Hospital said, "Although the vaccination rate is increasing, many have been vaccinated and quarantine measures have been relaxed, so the increase in confirmed cases through gatherings will continue," predicting, "Some young people do not fully recognize that they can be transmission vectors, so confirmed cases may increase further."

Professor Chun added, "As the number of vaccinated people increases, unlike the third wave, severe cases and deaths are not rapidly increasing, so even if infections occur, we can consider shifting to a system that does not burden the healthcare system, such as expanding self-treatment," but she said, "since COVID-19 is much more contagious and deadly than the flu, the healthcare system must be carefully planned."

Some experts foresee that the fourth wave will continue without a peak.

Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Medical School said, "There is a high possibility that the record number of confirmed cases will be reached next week, and this situation will continue for the time being," adding, "The baseline number of confirmed cases is likely to gradually increase without a peak." Professor Eom said, "There is great expectation that the epidemic will decrease once vaccination is completed, but in fact, the goal of vaccination is not to reduce the scale of the epidemic but to reduce the occurrence of severe cases and deaths," and "Even if 80% of the entire population is vaccinated, about 10 million people remain unvaccinated, so the epidemic can continue."

Accordingly, he advised the government to prioritize when transitioning to With Corona. Professor Eom said, "There is no safe With Corona," pointing out, "With Corona is a process of deciding which damage to accept." He said, "We must decide whether to maintain strong social distancing measures and endure the damage to self-employed people or lift social distancing and accept deaths among high-risk groups."

Strengthen Epidemiological Investigation Capacity... Difficult to Trace Due to Manpower Limits

Experts unanimously agreed that to prevent a surge in confirmed cases, it is necessary not only to increase the vaccination completion rate but also to strengthen epidemiological investigation capacity. With the more transmissible Delta variant spreading rapidly, the speed of epidemiological investigations is failing to keep up with the rate of new confirmed cases, and this situation must not be ignored.

Professor Jeong Ki-seok of Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital (former director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency) evaluated that the epidemiological investigation capacity, a pillar of K-quarantine, has shown its limits. As the number of confirmed cases surged simultaneously without an increase in epidemiological investigation personnel, difficulties in 'tracking' confirmed cases have arisen. Professor Jeong said, "Since the third wave, when the proportion of cases with unknown infection routes exceeded 20%, holes have appeared in epidemiological investigations," criticizing, "The proportion of 'under investigation' cases recently approached 40%, which practically means giving up on epidemiological investigations."

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, the proportion of cases with unknown infection sources among new confirmed cases over the past four weeks has continuously risen from 33.3% → 33.6% → 36.3% → 39.8%, nearing 40%. Professor Jeong pointed out, "Without increasing personnel and resources for epidemiological investigations, trying to manage with existing staff is impossible," and warned, "If we try to cover epidemiological investigations with current personnel while confirmed cases exceed 3,000, we will not be able to prevent a surge in confirmed cases going forward."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.