[AKYUNG Poll] Hong Joon-pyo Leads Opposition... Surpasses Yoon Seok-yeol for the First Time

Opposition Presidential Candidate Suitability
Significant Support for Rep. Hong
Analysis of 'Reverse Voting'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] In a suitability survey conducted exclusively among conservative opposition presidential candidates, Hong Joon-pyo, a member of the People Power Party, surpassed former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl. This is the first time since November last year that Hong has ranked first within the opposition in our survey.

Hong received a support rate of 32.8%, a sharp increase of 10.7 percentage points compared to the previous survey (third week of August). Former Prosecutor General Yoon came in second with 25.8% (a decrease of 3.0 percentage points). Following were former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min at 11.3%, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, at 4.6%, former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong at 3.2%, and former Future United Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn at 2.6%. Hong’s recent steep rise was driven by men, those aged 30 and under, and the Honam region. It is also interpreted that he absorbed some support from the undecided voters who answered ‘other figures’ or ‘none.’

Some analyses that a significant portion of Hong’s support comes from ‘reverse voting’ were somewhat confirmed in this survey as well. Hong received 41.5% support in the Honam region, including Gwangju and Jeolla, far ahead of second-place Yoo Seung-min’s 15.8%. Former Prosecutor General Yoon only garnered 8.6% in this region. Additionally, among those who said they support the Democratic Party, 37.5% chose Hong. Yoo was second with 17.5%, and Yoon was only 7.2%. This can be interpreted as a result of opposition party supporters intentionally choosing Hong as a form of reverse voting.

However, there is another perspective. Hong’s support within the People Power Party base is also rising simultaneously. Among People Power Party supporters, 44.7% support Yoon, while Hong has 35.3%. In the previous survey, Yoon had 59.4% support among People Power Party supporters, a drop of nearly 15 percentage points. Meanwhile, Hong had 14.2% in the previous survey, rising by 21.1 percentage points. Although Hong benefits from reverse voting by Honam voters and Democratic Party supporters, it is also clear that his overall support is on an upward trend.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from November 11 to 12, targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and older. A total of 1,022 people responded, with an overall response rate of 7.4%. The survey method was 100% wireless ARS using virtual mobile phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.