In the Fog: LDP Leadership Election in Japan... Candidate Flood Following Suga's Withdrawal Announcement

Taro Kono Leads Polls, Three-Way Race with Ishiba and Kishida
Takaichi Supported by Abe Shows Low Recognition and Support
Next Party Leader Must Secure October Election Victory... Fierce Factional Power Struggle

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Following Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's announcement that he will not run in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, a fierce competition is expected as candidates from various factions within the LDP are emerging, making the outcome unpredictable. According to opinion polls, Administrative Reform Minister Taro Kono holds the highest approval rating, while former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba and former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida are closely trailing, suggesting a three-way race. Sanae Takaichi, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, who has attracted attention as a potential first female prime minister, is expected to have difficulty becoming a candidate due to low recognition and factional disagreements.

On the 6th, Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun reported that in an urgent opinion poll conducted among key LDP politicians considered as next prime minister candidates, Minister Kono recorded the highest support at 23%. He was followed by former Secretary-General Ishiba at 21% and former Policy Research Council Chairman Kishida at 12%. Former Minister Takaichi, endorsed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, garnered only 3%.

Intense Factional Competition Following Suga's Withdrawal Announcement

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

This opinion poll was conducted ahead of the LDP leadership election scheduled for the 29th. Since Prime Minister Suga announced his withdrawal on the 29th of last month, factions within the LDP have been rushing to nominate candidates, resulting in a chaotic situation. So far, the officially declared candidates are former Policy Research Council Chairman Kishida, who first announced his candidacy on the 26th of last month, and former Minister Takaichi, who declared her candidacy the day before. Minister Kono and former Secretary-General Ishiba are also expected to announce their candidacies soon.

With Prime Minister Suga, who had strongly expressed his intention to seek re-election, stepping down, factions within the LDP have entered a fierce power struggle, leading to a proliferation of candidates. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), the LDP consists of seven factions in total. The largest faction, Hosoda faction, led by former Prime Minister Abe, has 96 members, followed by the Aso faction, which supports Minister Kono, with 53 members. Other factions include Takeshita faction (52 members), Nikai faction (47 members), Kishida faction (46 members), Ishiba faction (17 members), and Ishihara faction (10 members).

One reason for the intense factional competition and power struggle in this LDP leadership election is that the House of Representatives general election must be held immediately after the leadership election, in mid-October. To win the general election expected around the 17th of next month, candidates must secure broad support from factions within the party as well as nationwide recognition and high approval ratings.

High Intra-Party Support and Public Recognition Needed... Chaotic Race Expected

[Image source=Japanese House of Councillors official website]

Based solely on opinion poll approval ratings, Minister Kono and former Secretary-General Ishiba are the leading candidates, but even they find it difficult to become party leader without support from other factions. In particular, former Secretary-General Ishiba reportedly cannot even register as a candidate with only the 17 members of his own Ishiba faction. The LDP leadership election requires a candidate to secure a majority of 766 votes, which is the sum of 383 votes from LDP members of the Diet and 383 votes from party members, and candidate registration requires the consent of 20 affiliated Diet members.

In this situation, the endorsement of former Minister Takaichi as the first female prime minister candidate by former Prime Minister Abe, leader of the largest Hosoda faction, is seen as further intensifying the chaotic race. According to Jiji Press, in an interview with BS Fuji TV on the 3rd, former Minister Takaichi stated, "If I become prime minister, I will visit Yasukuni Shrine." She is known as a prominent right-wing politician, following Prime Minister Suga, and is considered a representative 'post-Abe' figure.

However, due to her low recognition and approval ratings, she is considered to have weak support within the Hosoda faction except for former Prime Minister Abe. Yomiuri Shimbun pointed out, "Even if the leaders of the seven factions officially endorse candidates, the most important factor is whether they can lead the party to victory in the October general election."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.