"Delayed Vaccine Supply Causes 2700 Trillion Won Loss to Global Economy Over 4 Years"

EIU "Two-thirds of losses concentrated in emerging countries... Vaccine donations not a big help"

At Syntagma Square in front of the Hellenic Parliament in Athens, Greece, police are arresting protesters opposing the mandatory COVID-19 vaccination on the 29th (local time). [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Minwoo Lee] It is forecasted that delays in COVID-19 vaccination will cause a loss of 2,700 trillion won to the global economy over the next four years. In particular, about two-thirds of these losses are expected to be concentrated in emerging countries.

On the 27th (local time), the US economic media CNBC reported this citing a recent report by the British economic analysis institution Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The study analyzed vaccination plans and GDP changes in over 200 countries.

According to the report, countries with a COVID-19 vaccination rate below 60% by mid-next year are expected to suffer an economic loss of $2.3 trillion (approximately 2,684 trillion won) from next year through 2025. This amount is comparable to France's annual GDP.

In particular, the EIU projected that about two-thirds of these losses will be concentrated in emerging countries. Accordingly, the gap between emerging, developing, and advanced countries will widen further, poverty will intensify, and local communities will become more unstable. For example, countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region are expected to experience a GDP decline of about 2.9% during 2022-2025 due to sluggish vaccination progress. In contrast, Eastern European countries are estimated to see only a 0.1% decrease in GDP.

Meanwhile, Asia was identified as the region with the largest quantitative economic loss. During this period, GDP is estimated to decrease by about $1.7 trillion, which corresponds to 1.3% of Asia's total GDP forecast.

The study also predicted that by the end of this month, over 60% of people in advanced countries will have received at least one dose of the vaccine. In contrast, the rate in poor countries is expected to be only 1%.

Agata Demarais, head of global economic outlook at EIU and author of the study, pointed out, "The vaccination rate gap between emerging and advanced countries will not narrow," adding, "Vaccines donated by wealthy countries account for only a very small portion of the total vaccines actually needed by low-income countries."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.