Yoon 26.5% vs Lee 24.9% Neck-and-Neck Within Margin of Error... Hong Jun-pyo Jumps to 4th Place [Realmeter]

Yoon Seok-yeol Stops Decline, Maintains Mid-20% Range
Lee Jae-myung Drops 1.0%p from Previous Survey... Gap with Yoon at 1.6%p
Lee Nak-yeon 12.8%, Hong Joon-pyo 8.1%... Hong Hits Highest Since April Last Year

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] In the preference survey for the next presidential candidate, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung continue to be in a close race within the margin of error. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon maintained support in the low 10% range, holding third place, while Representative Hong Joon-pyo jumped to fourth place for the first time with support in the 8% range.

On the 26th, Realmeter released the results of the preference survey for 16 major politicians from both ruling and opposition parties for the fourth week of August 2021, commissioned by 'OhmyNews.' Former Prosecutor General Yoon was recorded at 26.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous survey in the second week of August. During the same period, Governor Lee, who ranked second, dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.9%, showing a difference of 1.6 percentage points between the two candidates, indicating a close race within the margin of error.

Former Prosecutor General Yoon's support increased in the Chungcheong region, Incheon·Gyeonggi among those in their 60s and 50s, among undecided voters, supporters of the Open Democratic Party, progressives, and self-employed individuals. However, his support declined in Daegu·Gyeongbuk (TK), Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (PK), those aged 70 and above, 20s and 30s age groups, supporters of the People’s Party and Justice Party, as well as among the unemployed, retirees, others, and workers in sales, production, labor, and service sectors.

Governor Lee's support decreased in Honam, Incheon·Gyeonggi, Seoul, Chungcheong region, among those in their 50s and 20s, undecided voters, supporters of the Open Democratic Party, self-employed, students, and office, management, and professional workers. Conversely, his support rose in TK and PK regions, supporters of the Justice Party and People’s Party, unemployed, retirees, others, housewives, and workers in sales, production, labor, and service sectors.

Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon recorded 12.8%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous survey. His support declined in Chungcheong region, Incheon·Gyeonggi, among those in their 60s and 70s and above, 40s age group, undecided voters, Justice Party supporters, students, and self-employed. However, it increased among those in their 20s and 50s, supporters of the Open Democratic Party and People’s Party, workers in sales, production, labor, service sectors, and the unemployed, retirees, and others.

Next, Representative Hong Joon-pyo rose 2.7 percentage points to 8.1%, marking his highest since 7.6% in April last year, jumping to fourth place. His support increased across most demographics, including Chungcheong region, TK, Honam, Seoul, those in their 20s and 70s and above, 40s age group, supporters of the People Power Party, Open Democratic Party, People’s Party, centrists and progressives, students, self-employed, workers in sales, production, labor, service sectors, and office, management, and professional workers.

Following them were former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung (4.0%), former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae (3.7%), former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (3.1%), People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (2.9%), Representative Yoon Hee-sook (2.4%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (1.7%), former Justice Party leader Shim Sang-jung (1.5%), former Future United Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn (1.1%), Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (0.6%), newly included former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon (0.6%), Representative Kim Du-kwan (0.4%), and Representative Park Yong-jin (0.3%). This survey was conducted just before Yoon’s announcement not to run for president on the 25th, so Yoon was included.

The combined support for the conservative and opposition candidates (Yoon Seok-yeol, Hong Joon-pyo, Choi Jae-hyung, Yoo Seung-min, Ahn Cheol-soo, Yoon Hee-sook, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Won Hee-ryong, Kim Dong-yeon) rose 1.6 percentage points to 49.4%, while the combined support for the progressive and ruling party candidates (Lee Jae-myung, Lee Nak-yeon, Chu Mi-ae, Chung Sye-kyun, Shim Sang-jung, Kim Du-kwan, Park Yong-jin) fell 1.5 percentage points to 45.2%, widening the gap between the two camps to 4.2 percentage points.

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, former Prosecutor General Yoon showed an advantage over both Governor Lee and former leader Lee Nak-yeon.

In the hypothetical one-on-one contest between Yoon and Lee, Yoon led with 42.5% over Lee’s 36.3%, a gap of 6.2 percentage points. In the matchup against former leader Lee Nak-yeon, Yoon garnered 43.1%, leading by 10.8 percentage points over Lee’s 32.3%.

Among Democratic Party presidential candidates, Governor Lee was considered the most suitable with 31.7%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous week. Former leader Lee Nak-yeon was at 21.7%, down 0.1 percentage point, with a 10.0 percentage point gap between the two. More than half (53.6%) of Democratic Party supporters responded that Governor Lee was the most suitable presidential candidate.

Among conservative opposition presidential candidates, former Prosecutor General Yoon was considered the most suitable with 28.6%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week. Representative Hong Joon-pyo rose 4.8 percentage points to 20.2%, with an 8.4 percentage point gap between the two. Among People Power Party supporters, Yoon received 53.3%, Hong 16.8%, and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung 6.9%.

This survey was conducted from the 23rd to 24th of August by contacting 38,589 people nationwide aged 18 and over, with 2,015 respondents completing the survey (response rate 5.2%). It was conducted via random digit dialing (RDD) with 90% mobile and 10% landline numbers using an automated response system. The sampling error is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to Realmeter or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.