How Did the Taliban End the '20-Year Afghan War'?

Utilizing National Anti-Government Sentiment... Government Forces Also Engaged
Strengthening Links with Residents through Temporary Government Formation in Occupied Areas
Unlike the Past, Emphasis on International Relations
Strong Public Backlash Against Signs of Terror Politics Revival
"Gaining Support from All Citizens Is Key"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] It was literally an unstoppable force. Since the start of the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Islamic militant group Taliban first captured major cities on the 9th and then took control of the capital Kabul within six days.

This marks a dramatic resurgence of the Taliban, who lost power almost instantly 20 years ago due to the U.S. invasion.

Experts analyze that the Taliban's victory, which shocked the international community, is the result of several years of preparation.

Ibrahim Bahis, a Taliban expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "The Taliban's advance happened very quickly," but added, "In fact, this was the result of a process that took several years."

An analysis published by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 18th (local time) was similar. WSJ reported that the Taliban "learned from the mistakes of the Western coalition forces," stating, "They exploited public anger over human rights abuses by Western troops and actively targeted the corruption within the Afghan government."

Utilizing Public Anti-Government Sentiment... Also Recruiting Government Forces

One factor behind the Taliban's victory is their active use of anti-government public sentiment.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Over the past few years, corruption within the Afghan government worsened significantly, with government officials frequently involved in organized crime and directly smuggling drugs.

This corrupt image of the government ironically gave the Taliban a relatively clean image, leading many disillusioned citizens to join the Taliban.

Muhammad Zaland, a political science professor at Kabul University, said, "The Taliban showed patience. They knew well how to exploit the public's backlash against the government."

In particular, the Taliban also contributed to strengthening their forces by persuading government soldiers who were dissatisfied with the central government to join them.

Until now, Afghan government soldiers had not been properly paid due to the central government's financial debts. The Taliban exploited this by offering soldiers $150 to join them, an amount equivalent to the average monthly salary of government soldiers.

The Taliban also secured surrenders from regional warlords through secret agreements, regardless of the central government's intentions.

Experts also analyze that another factor contributing to the Taliban's victory was their steady preparation for future national governance by establishing a "shadow government" in the areas they had already occupied, imposing taxes, providing public services, and recruiting troops.

As the shadow government developed, the Taliban built a governance system that improved residents' accessibility in the occupied areas.

Similar to the Taliban regime in the 1990s, they established and implemented a judicial system based on Islamic law, which WSJ reported functioned more smoothly than the government's judicial system, thereby maintaining proper security.

Professor Zaland analyzed that the Taliban's shadow government "gave legal legitimacy to the Taliban's occupation," which in turn undermined the legitimacy of the Afghan government and created a link between the Taliban and the residents.

Ashraf Ghani, the former Afghan president inaugurated in 2014, spent most of his life abroad, and most of his close aides earned degrees overseas. It is interpreted that President Ghani was inevitably weak in connecting with the people due to his insufficient understanding of the local Afghan situation.

Former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani
[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

In particular, Taliban-occupied areas were relatively safe with virtually no combat against government forces. In these areas, the shadow government's educational services were smoothly provided to children, whereas in government-controlled areas, ongoing battles with the Taliban made security unstable to the extent that even basic educational services could not be provided.

The Taliban's imposition of taxes on Afghanistan's illegal drug trade and oil trade with Iran, securing stable revenue sources, was also cited as another factor in their victory.

Emphasis on International Relations Unlike the Past

Experts also noted that, unlike in the past, the Taliban's active efforts to improve relations with the international community were an important factor.

The Taliban reportedly actively utilized the affiliated Haqqani Network in establishing relations with the international community.

The Haqqani Network is an organization that allied with the Taliban, which controlled Afghanistan in the late 1990s.

While the Taliban relied on Pakistan for support over 20 years ago, they now use the Haqqani Network to approach Iran, China, and Russia, gaining support from these countries.

Abdul Ghani Baradar, the second-in-command of the Taliban (left), is meeting with Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, in Tianjin, China, on July 28.
[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

As a result, the Taliban currently controlling Afghanistan have been officially recognized as a legitimate government by China, and Russia has announced plans to continue operating its embassy in Kabul. Iran also supported the Taliban, blaming the U.S. for the failure of the Afghan government and engaging in anti-American public opinion campaigns, which became a driving force behind the Taliban's victory.

However, Afghan citizens and the international community are concerned whether the Taliban's inhumane governance will continue. WSJ reported that citizens vividly remember the harsh governance policies the Taliban enforced in the late 1990s.

In fact, in recent months, during the Taliban's takeover of major Afghan regions, it has been reported that women were forcibly married to Taliban soldiers or expelled from workplaces.

Even after seizing control of the Afghan government, the Taliban raided citizens' homes, identified locals who cooperated with the U.S. military, and set up checkpoints throughout cities to conduct surprise inspections on citizens.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

In response to signs of the Taliban's terror regime becoming visible, protests have also taken place. On the 18th, in Jalalabad, a major city in eastern Afghanistan, hundreds of residents held the first large-scale protest against the Taliban regime. The Taliban fired shots at the protesters that day, killing at least two people.

WSJ added, "For the Taliban to govern the entire Afghan nation, maintaining the people's support consistently will be key," and "It is necessary to integrate with opposition groups to suppress rebellion."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.