US Intelligence Agencies Predict Fall of Afghan Capital Within 3 Months...Possibility Raised for Within a Month

Taliban's Unstoppable Advance, Seizes 9 of 34 Provincial Capitals
Criticism Likely Over Overestimation of Afghan Government Forces' Capabilities

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] U.S. intelligence agencies analyze that the Afghan armed group Taliban could capture the capital Kabul within three months, and some suggest the possibility of its fall within a month. The Biden administration's initial calculation, which expected a deadlock with the Afghan government forces to last at least six months, has been completely off, drawing criticism.

On the 11th (local time), The Washington Post (WP) cited a senior U.S. Department of Defense official saying, "U.S. intelligence agencies report that the Afghan capital Kabul could fall within the next 90 days," and "there is also a possibility of its fall within 30 days." Foreign media such as CBS also reported that U.S. intelligence agencies forecast that Kabul could be completely surrounded within 30 days and fall within 90 days.

Initially, in June, U.S. intelligence agencies predicted that Kabul would fall 6 to 12 months after the U.S. military withdrawal, but this timeline has accelerated significantly. It is interpreted that the forecast was drastically revised as the Taliban rapidly captured major cities within Afghanistan.

According to The New York Times (NYT), the Taliban had captured 9 out of 34 major Afghan cities by that day and controlled 233 out of 407 districts in total. Currently, the Afghan government is defending the capital Kabul and 109 districts, and although fighting is ongoing in 65 districts, these are expected to fall to the Taliban soon.

In U.S. political circles, criticism is expected that the Biden administration greatly misjudged the capabilities of the Afghan government forces. The Biden administration previously stated that the Afghan government forces, numbering about 300,000, overwhelmingly outnumber the Taliban, which is around 75,000, and that the Afghan forces possess various heavy weapons and fighter jets provided by the U.S. military, enabling sufficient defense.

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki, in a press briefing that day regarding reports on the possibility of an early fall of Kabul, drew a line by saying, "We rely on intelligence assessments made by the U.S. government, not anonymous evaluations." Psaki stated, "We are closely monitoring the deteriorating security situation in parts of that country," but "from our perspective, a specific outcome is not necessarily inevitable."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.