[Politics, That Day...] Half of Experienced Candidates Already Elected President, 'The 5 Million Vote Rule'

Candidates Who Lost with Over 5 Million Votes in Past Presidential Elections and Later Won the Presidency
Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung, Moon Jae-in Achieved Their Presidential Dreams... What Is the Fate of the Remaining '5 Million Vote Club'?

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, or figures that deserve attention.

When tracing the history of presidential elections in Korean politics, an interesting jinx can be found. This is the so-called ‘5 million votes rule.’ How many politicians have experienced winning more than 1 million votes in an election? Achieving 1 million votes in a National Assembly election is impossible.

It is only achievable by performing well in metropolitan local government elections in populous areas such as Seoul or Gyeonggi Province. Then, how many people have ever gained 5 million votes? In the most recent nationwide simultaneous local elections, the 7th local elections held in 2018, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate for Governor of Gyeonggi Province, received about 3.37 million votes.

Although candidate Lee Jae-myung received overwhelming support with a 56% vote share at the time, he fell far short of 5 million votes. Candidates who won in Seoul and Busan received 2.61 million and 940,000 votes respectively. No matter how high the vote share is, achieving 5 million votes in metropolitan local government elections is nearly impossible.

In Korean politics, the only realistic opportunity to reach the 5 million vote mark is the presidential election. Even in presidential elections, not just anyone can record 5 million votes. The winner of the election or at least the 2nd or 3rd place candidates must be recorded to reach the 5 million vote milestone.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Considering the reality of Korean politics, the 5 million vote milestone is the peak that presidential candidates from the Democratic Party faction, the People Power Party faction, or a strongly supported third party can aim for.

An interesting point is that among those who have joined the 5 million vote club in Korean politics, about half later won the presidential election and were elected as President of the Republic of Korea. For politicians, achieving 5 million votes is like a badge that foretells reaching the presidential milestone.

One of the strongest ‘third-party candidates’ in Korean presidential election history, Jeong Ju-young of the Unification National Party, did not join the 5 million vote club. In the 14th presidential election in 1992, he performed well with 16.31% of the vote but his vote count remained at 3,880,067.

Lee In-je, the candidate of the National New Party in the 15th presidential election in 1997, who many believe recorded 5 million votes, also fell short of joining the 5 million vote club. At that time, Lee In-je received 4,925,591 votes (19.2%).

The first person to join the 5 million vote club and realize the dream of becoming president was former President Kim Dae-jung. Kim Dae-jung ran as the New Democratic Party candidate in the 7th presidential election in 1971 and received 5,395,900 votes (45.25%).

Politician Kim Dae-jung was elected president in the 15th presidential election in 1997 with 10,326,275 votes (40.27%). Politician Kim Dae-jung received more than 5 million votes four times in total: 1971, 1987, 1992, and 1997. He is the only person to have joined the 5 million vote club four times.

The first person to prove the 5 million vote club jinx (politicians who have experienced surpassing 5 million votes are highly likely to be elected president later) was former President Kim Young-sam. Kim Young-sam joined the 5 million vote club by recording 6,337,581 votes (28.03%) in the 13th presidential election in 1987.

Kim Young-sam became the new occupant of the Blue House by recording 9,977,332 votes (41.96%) in the 14th presidential election in 1992.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Following former Presidents Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung, the person who proved the 5 million vote club jinx was President Moon Jae-in. President Moon received 14,692,632 votes (48.02%) in 2012 but lost. He set the record for the highest votes among losing candidates in Korean presidential election history.

President Moon was elected in 2017 with 13,423,800 votes (41.08%). Another president was born among those who received more than 5 million votes.

Then, who are the people who joined the 5 million vote club but have not yet realized their dream of becoming president? A representative figure is politician Lee Hoi-chang. Former Grand National Party presidential candidate Lee Hoi-chang ran in the 1997 and 2002 presidential elections, recording 9,935,718 votes (38.74%) and 11,443,297 votes (46.58%) respectively, but lost. He challenged the 2007 presidential election again but lost with 3,559,963 votes (15.07%).

There is also a person in the Democratic Party faction who joined the 5 million vote club but has not realized the dream of presidency. Politician Chung Dong-young is the protagonist. He ran as the candidate of the United Democratic New Party in the 2007 presidential election and received 6,174,681 votes (26.14%) but has not yet become the final winner of a presidential election.

Among those who may run in the 2022 presidential election, there are also members of the 5 million vote club. The politicians who recorded more than 5 million votes in the most recent 19th presidential election in 2017 are Hong Joon-pyo and Ahn Cheol-soo.

Hong Joon-pyo, the Liberty Korea Party candidate, received 7,852,849 votes (24.03%), and Ahn Cheol-soo, the People's Party candidate, received 6,998,342 votes (21.41%). Both candidates lost but experienced receiving more than 5 million votes. Will these two become the next protagonists of the 5 million votes rule in the upcoming presidential election?

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.