Delayed Primary... Still '1 Gang' vs Gradual Rise, Clashes Expected to Intensify

If It Goes to a Runoff Vote, It's 'Uncertain'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] As the timing for selecting the Democratic Party's presidential candidate is delayed, the battle between Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former party leader Lee Nak-yeon is expected to intensify further. Governor Lee still maintains his position as the 'front-runner,' but former leader Lee is gaining momentum rapidly. Lee’s camp wanted to finalize the schedule as planned, but they could not ignore the unexpected variable of the fourth wave of COVID-19.

With more time required until the candidate selection, both sides inevitably feel a greater urgency not to fall behind, which means a fierce battle is expected. From the Democratic Party’s perspective, this is seen positively as it could increase public interest.

On the 20th, former leader Lee appeared on MBC Radio and commented on the primary delay, saying, "It could be advantageous or disadvantageous, but regardless of that, the leadership made an unavoidable decision." He, along with former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, had strongly advocated for postponement since the preliminary primaries. Initially, they insisted on a delay of about two months, so this can be seen as a partial success.

Recent polls often describe Governor Lee’s support as 'stagnant' and former leader Lee’s as 'rising.' Although Governor Lee’s approval ratings have plateaued, when looking at multiple candidates from both ruling and opposition parties, he still leads former leader Lee by about 10 percentage points in many cases. It is true that former leader Lee is still at a significant disadvantage, but he has gained more time to catch up.

Governor Lee said on KBS Radio that "Rather than our base shrinking, their side (former leader Lee’s side) has grown, so it seems there is an overall convention effect." As the Democratic Party’s approval ratings rise, former leader Lee’s support is increasing, but Governor Lee’s ratings have not dropped.

Former leader Lee’s camp is considering a runoff vote. According to the postponed schedule, if no candidate obtains a majority on October 10, the top two candidates will compete again, and in that case, votes from supporters of other candidates are expected to consolidate behind former leader Lee.

A representative from former leader Lee’s camp said, "Looking at recent trends, it could be said that we could win even without a delay, but considering the COVID-19 pandemic situation, we have maintained the position that postponement is appropriate."

Of course, trends can change at any time, and whether a critical blow emerges from the recent heated exchanges could have an impact. The competition has become overheated, focusing more on slander or verification rather than policy pledges.

For the Democratic Party, which did not see much excitement during the preliminary primaries, this is encouraging. Since public sentiment has sharply cooled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they believe avoiding this period and gathering public interest after the Chuseok holiday is advantageous. The fact that the opposition’s strongest candidate, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, has seen his support decline is also an opportunity for the Democratic Party.

Research View CEO Ahn Il-won said, "The Democratic Party’s concerns deepened as the primaries failed to generate excitement, but if the COVID-19 situation improves, it could be helpful. The support rate for former Prosecutor General Yoon will also affect the Democratic Party’s primaries. How the power of the opposing candidate is assessed will influence Democratic Party supporters’ decisions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.