[Akyeong Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol Declines, Lee Jae-myung Stalls, Lee Nak-yeon Rises

In the Quantum Showdown, Lee Nak-yeon Ranks Higher Than Yoon Seok-yeol

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The presidential race is shaking up. Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating has noticeably dropped, leading to a close contest with Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province. However, Lee's support has also stagnated, while former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon is gaining momentum. Notably, in hypothetical matchups where Yoon becomes the conservative opposition candidate, Lee Nak-yeon showed higher competitiveness than Lee Jae-myung.

According to a presidential candidate approval poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on the 10th and 11th, Yoon and Lee Jae-myung were neck and neck with 26.4% and 25.8%, respectively. Compared to the same survey conducted on the 26th and 27th of last month, Yoon's support dropped by 4.3 percentage points, and Lee Jae-myung's also fell by 0.8 points. Meanwhile, Lee Nak-yeon's approval surged by 6.9 points to 16.4%, followed by People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (4.8%), former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (4.7%), and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung (4.1%).

Former Future United Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min received 3.2%, while former Prime Minister Jeong Se-gyun, once considered one of the 'Big 3,' garnered only 3%. Others such as Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party (2.1%), Democratic Party lawmaker Park Yong-jin (1.3%), Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (1.3%), and People Power Party lawmaker Ha Tae-kyung (0.5%) showed relatively low support.

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Yoon's decline was more pronounced. Lee Jae-myung's support rose by 1 percentage point to 41.5%, while Yoon's dropped by 6.5 points to 42.2%, maintaining a narrow lead within the margin of error.

When asked about a ruling party candidate being Lee Nak-yeon, he recorded 43.7%, higher than Yoon's 41.2%. Unlike the multi-candidate poll, Lee Nak-yeon showed strong competitiveness in the one-on-one matchup, which is interpreted as reflecting differences in the consolidation of Democratic Party supporters.

If Lee Jae-myung is chosen as the Democratic presidential candidate and the election is framed as 'Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-yeol,' only 71.3% of Democratic supporters said they would back Lee. Assuming 43% of Lee’s supporters in the multi-candidate race remain, only 28% of Democratic supporters who did not originally support Lee would back him in the presidential election. The remaining Democratic supporters answered that they would vote for 'other candidates' rather than Lee or Yoon, accounting for 17%. Even those who said they would vote for Yoon increased by about 5 percentage points to 8%.

On the other hand, if Lee Nak-yeon is the Democratic candidate, nearly all of Lee Jae-myung’s supporters appear to shift to Lee Nak-yeon. In the 'Lee Nak-yeon vs. Yoon Seok-yeol' scenario, Lee Nak-yeon gained 82.3% support by adding his original 34% Democratic base to Lee Jae-myung’s 43%, plus an additional 5%. In this survey, 6.7% said they would vote for other candidates rather than Lee Nak-yeon, and 6% said they would choose Yoon, showing different results from the 'Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-yeol' scenario. This is also seen as evidence that the so-called mainstream faction within the Democratic Party, the 'Pro-Moon (Pro-Moon Jae-in),' leans more toward Lee Nak-yeon.

The Democratic Party narrowed down six candidates through a preliminary primary (cutoff), and Lee Nak-yeon has left open the possibility of unification. Gender-based polling also showed clear differences. Lee Jae-myung had 45.0% support among men and 38.0% among women, while Lee Nak-yeon recorded 39.7% among men and 47.7% among women.

As the presidential race intensifies, candidates have faced scrutiny, which appears to have influenced this survey. Yoon seems to have suffered image damage due to his mother-in-law’s imprisonment and controversies involving his wife. Lee Jae-myung is also faltering as his signature policy of basic income faces fierce criticism from both ruling and opposition parties, and old personal controversies have resurfaced. However, Lee Nak-yeon, having served as Democratic Party leader since last year and been exposed to public opinion, is perceived to have a relatively stable image compared to the top candidates from both parties. This can be seen as a kind of reflective effect.

Meanwhile, former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung showed lower competitiveness compared to Yoon. In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Lee Jae-myung scored 42.6% versus Choi’s 36.1%, and Lee Nak-yeon 43.5% versus Choi’s 36.8%. In all cases, the ruling party candidate led beyond the margin of error. Choi has not officially declared his presidential candidacy.

This survey was conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and older on the 10th and 11th by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting, with 1,011 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.5%. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number wireless ARS, and the sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.