[AKY Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol vs Lee Jae-myung Virtual Matchup... 0.7%P 'Neck and Neck'

Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol vs. Governor Lee Jae-myung Head-to-Head
Narrow Margin Within Margin of Error Shows 'Neck-and-Neck' Race

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung show an extremely close race with a 0.7 percentage point difference in a hypothetical one-on-one contest. Former Prosecutor General Yoon leads Governor Lee by a narrow margin within the margin of error, but the gap between the two candidates has significantly narrowed from 8.2 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous survey.

Former Prosecutor General Yoon's approval rating dropped by 6.5 percentage points (from 48.7% to 42.2%) compared to the previous survey (June 26-27) due to a series of adverse events including the arrest of his mother-in-law Choi, controversies over 'relay politics,' and allegations of plagiarism in his wife's thesis. Governor Lee's approval rating increased by only 1 percentage point (from 40.5% to 41.5%) during the same period, amid controversies such as the 'pants remark' during the preliminary primary.

Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion survey from the 10th to the 11th targeting 1,011 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). The results showed former Prosecutor General Yoon's support at 42.2% and Governor Lee's support at 41.5%, a 0.7 percentage point difference within the margin of error.

Former Prosecutor General Yoon's support exceeded 50% among those in their 60s (59.0%) and those aged 70 and above (60.4%). In contrast, Governor Lee was favored by those in their 40s (61.3%) and 50s (49.3%). Yoon's support was highest in Daegu/Gyeongbuk (61.1%), a stronghold of the opposition, followed by Daejeon/Sejong/Chungcheong (53.6%). Lee's support was strong in Honam regions such as Gwangju/Jeolla (61.5%), the political base of the ruling party, and in Gyeonggi/Incheon (46.7%).

Among supporters of the People Power Party and the People Party, 82.8% and 76.1% respectively supported former Prosecutor General Yoon. Among Democratic Party supporters, 71.3%, and among Open Democratic Party supporters, 82.0% supported Governor Lee.

A significant portion of the 'anti-Moon Jae-in vote' appears to be going to former Prosecutor General Yoon. Among those who negatively evaluate the president's job performance, 73.3% preferred Yoon. Only 6.0% of those with a positive evaluation supported Yoon. Among those who positively evaluated the president's job performance, 72.9%, and among those who negatively evaluated it, 15.3% supported Governor Lee.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 10th to the 11th targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,011 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.5%. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual numbers via wireless ARS, and the sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.