[The Editors' Verdict] The Issue of Regime Change and Regime Continuation

In Korean politics in 2022, the choice between regime change and regime continuation is a very important one. Both the ruling and opposition parties, along with their active supporters, will strive to settle the issue decisively, no matter what. Viewing the political decision of the 20th presidential election in a binary way, like Hamlet's "To be or not to be, that is the question," would only lead to tragedy. This is because the presidential election in Korea involves a judgment that combines politics, economy, society, culture, and inter-Korean relations. The decision-maker for regime change or continuation is the people. Most likely, the majority of the people will take "politics of integration" and "the people as the owners of the country" as the guiding principles of their choice. Who among the ruling and opposition parties will be chosen in the 20th presidential election will entirely depend on whether they adhere to these political commandments.

For the opposition, including the People Power Party, next year's presidential election is a golden opportunity for regime change. The essence of the crisis in the Moon Jae-in administration lies in the lack of integrative politics and the alienation of public sentiment. Currently, the political power of the opposition is dispersed among Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party, and a third force, so the way these forces unite and the political process must be clearly and simply organized. It is extremely risky to easily expect a repeat of the April 7 by-election victory. At that time, the political state of the Moon Jae-in government and the Democratic Party was simply at its worst. Regime change is possible only when the current opposition effectively achieves total unity and presents a clear vision for the future.

If the People Power Party achieves expansion of its base and efficient reorganization of the opposition, regime change could be easy. However, Yoon Seok-yeol’s political spectrum is much more conservative and combative than that of the People Power Party, which presents a blind spot. Yoon’s aggressive stance toward the regime may be suitable for consolidating the conservative base and enhancing combativeness, but it could be poison for securing support from the moderate middle ground that underestimates factional fights. The reorganization of the opposition is shaping up to be a very difficult process if it aims for integrative politics and politics that prioritize the people.

Sangcheol Park, Professor at the Graduate School of Political Studies, Kyonggi University

As the saying goes, defending a fortress is harder than capturing it, the ruling party, which will open the more complex path of regime continuation, can only take its first step when it overcomes the limitations of the Moon Jae-in administration and produces a candidate free from those constraints. Since the ruling party cannot endure without securing ideological diversity and strengthening pragmatic politics, the primary task for regime continuation is to break free from ideological narrow-mindedness.

To overcome ideological bias and secure diversity, the Democratic Party and the presidential candidate’s camp need to accurately define the power of the Candlelight Movement and the form of the 2017 early presidential election. The Candlelight Movement was able to complete the revolution of the early presidential election because various social classes participating in the Candlelight maintained persistence and combativeness toward the same goal. In short, it must be remembered that the political integrative power of many citizens brought about the Moon Jae-in government through the Candlelight Movement and the early presidential election.

What is even more frightening for the Democratic Party is the closed nature of factional politics within the party. The existence of hegemonic factions leads to the party being operated in a closed manner, blocking the participation of new political forces, and ultimately causing the party to drift away from the people. The presidential candidate and camp to be decided in early September must recognize that they will only qualify for regime continuation when everything is aligned with the people's expectations. Parties and camps with almost no new entrants are inevitably weak against change. In short, regime change and regime continuation will ultimately be won by the side that demonstrates the vision and ability to pursue ‘integrative and people-first politics.’ The people have always chosen the best candidate at the moment of the presidential election, even if that president later fails, and this time will be no exception.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.