[AKYUNG Poll] Declining Approval Ratings and People Power Leadership Generation Change: Yoon's Time for Decision

Scheduled Party Convention After the 11th
Decision on Party Membership Expected

Next Presidential Suitability
Trailing Lee Jae-myung by 0.2%P
Support Rate Drops by 3.2%P

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] It appears that former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, who has been keeping a low profile since his retirement, is about to make a decision. Public fatigue over his lack of concrete political moves is growing, which is also linked to a decline in his approval ratings. The People Power Party is expected to decide on his party membership around mid-month when the new leadership is formed. With a ‘generational change’ likely in the current party leadership, this adds momentum to Yoon’s decision to join the party.

According to political circles on the 1st, the prevailing view is that Yoon’s decision will come after the People Power Party’s leadership election scheduled for the 11th. For now, Yoon’s camp has taken a cautious stance, stating, "Nothing has been decided regarding joining the People Power Party or the timing of joining," and "We are listening to opinions around us and carefully considering the matter." However, this is quite different from before, when Yoon avoided direct meetings after phone calls with figures like Kim Jong-in, former emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, who had shown interest in him.

Analysts also suggest that recent stagnation in approval ratings has played a role in this change. In a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-Gi Korea Consulting on the 15th-16th of last month (targeting 1,019 voters nationwide aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, using wireless ARS with virtual mobile phone numbers 100%), Yoon led among major presidential candidates with 30.5%. Two weeks later, in a poll conducted on the 29th-30th of last month, Yoon’s approval rating dropped to 27.3%, slightly trailing Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung’s 27.5% within the margin of error.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The easing of concerns over whether to pursue a third-party path or join the People Power Party has also made Yoon’s choice easier. With less than a year left until the presidential election, the need for a political base was significant, but the negative image surrounding the People Power Party?such as being a conservative party or factional disputes?was seen as an obstacle to Yoon’s political moves. Yoon himself has been gaining popularity as a representative of new politics emphasizing fairness and reform. However, following the People Power Party’s victory in the April 7 by-elections and the emergence of the ‘Lee Jun-seok phenomenon,’ such concerns have considerably diminished.

Currently leading in the party representative primary polls, former Supreme Council member Lee recently said, "If former Prosecutor General Yoon joins our party and faces attacks on his wife or mother-in-law, I will give Yoon three silk pouches," referring to a traditional Korean gift. This is a kind of ‘courtship’ indicating that the People Power Party as an ‘organization’ will protect Yoon’s vulnerabilities. However, Lee also emphasized that "Yoon must also follow the People Power Party’s rules," drawing a clear line. In a TV debate the day before, Lee stated, "The bus does not wait for a specific person," implying that the party primary cannot be delayed for Yoon, so if he wants to participate, he should hurry to join the party. Whether Yoon accepts this proposal could be his final consideration.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-Gi Korea Consulting targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide on the 29th-30th of last month, with 1,045 respondents and an overall response rate of 10.4%. The method was 100% wireless ARS using virtual mobile phone numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.