[Munbangmi] North Korea Nuclear Issue, Quad, and Wartime Operational Control: "Mountain Beyond Mountain" Joint Statement by South Korea-US Leaders

[Asia Economy Reporter Inho Yoo, Military Specialist Reporter Nakgyu Yang] Experts analyzed that the success or failure of the upcoming Korea-US summit will depend on how much the joint statement to be announced afterward reflects our government's position and will to establish a peace process on the Korean Peninsula.

The joint statement is expected to include the discussions between the two leaders on tangled issues such as denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, North Korean human rights, the Quad, and wartime operational control. Cooperation plans in areas such as economy and trade, excluding security, are likely to be announced separately rather than in the joint statement.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 20th, Korea and the US are making final adjustments to announce a joint statement covering only alliance relations and diplomatic security matters after the summit held on the 21st (local time) in Washington DC, USA.

From the perspective of expanding economic and trade cooperation, a vaccine partnership and plans to mutually expand cooperation in the semiconductor and battery industries are expected to be announced additionally in a separate joint fact sheet. Previously, at last month's US-Japan summit, the two countries also announced a separate joint fact sheet specifying partnerships in new technologies, quarantine, and climate change fields apart from the joint statement.

In this context, there is a high possibility that President Moon Jae-in will propose including the phrase ‘to inherit the North Korea-US Singapore Agreement’ under the framework of the US's North Korea policy.

If this proposal is accepted, it would significantly reflect President Moon’s position, who has emphasized the need to promote North Korea-US dialogue even under the Biden administration.

In his special speech on the 4th anniversary of his inauguration, President Moon stated, "I will seek a way to restore dialogue among South and North Korea, and the US and North Korea by more closely coordinating North Korea policies at the Korea-US summit, and take steps again toward peace cooperation."

Professor Jaeho Hwang of the International Studies Department at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies predicted, "President Moon’s will to find a breakthrough related to North Korea’s nuclear issue and to successfully conclude the peace process on the Korean Peninsula during the remaining one year of his term will be conveyed to the US side."

However, not only the inheritance of the Singapore Agreement but also all other pending issues are fields where coordination between Korea and the US is not easy.

In particular, if President Biden directly raises the issue of North Korean human rights, North Korea’s backlash is expected, which could negatively affect the environment for establishing a peace process on the Korean Peninsula. Regarding this, the US side maintains the stance that it will not concede on human rights issues to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem.

Voices are also calling for achievements on the wartime operational control (OPCON) transfer issue at this summit.

President Moon, according to his pledge of ‘OPCON transfer within his term,’ insists that a full operational capability (FOC) verification exercise of the future combined command should be conducted in the second half of this year.

However, the US side emphasizes ‘meeting transfer conditions,’ making it difficult to find a consensus. Some speculate that the Biden administration, which emphasizes resolving the North Korean nuclear issue through Korea-US-Japan trilateral cooperation, may mention improving Korea-Japan relations and joining the Quad.

However, even if the Quad issue is mentioned, it is unlikely that immediate participation will be demanded considering Korea’s special relationship with China.

Professor Mujin Yang of the University of North Korean Studies said, "If the Quad issue is discussed, it is likely to focus on climate and environmental issues in the Indo-Pacific region rather than membership," adding, "However, the OPCON transfer issue involves complex interests, so reaching an agreement will not be easy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.