[Square] Weather and Climate Forecasts Unfolding Behind the Scenes

Last April, a four-wheeled robotic vehicle the size of a small truck successfully entered Mars. After flying for seven months from Earth and entering the Martian atmosphere, it overcame gravity and landed on bare ground. An unmanned helicopter that emerged from the robot began flying in the thin Martian atmosphere, taking photographs. Just by looking at the exterior of the robot or helicopter, it is hard to find anything mysterious. However, the software (SW) operates various equipment and tools to present us with astonishing scenes. In the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies led by the Internet of Things (IoT), software equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) analyzes massive amounts of data and solves problems autonomously.

The supercomputer operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) may look like nothing more than a cabinet packed with thin electric wires, but the software called the ‘numerical weather prediction model’ moves electrical signals to calculate future weather and climate. Climate change is becoming a reality before our eyes. This makes the role of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting weather and climate increasingly important.

Numerical weather prediction models have mainly been used for public purposes to ensure social safety from weather disasters and abnormal climate variations. However, recently, their applications have rapidly expanded into economic industries and private business sectors. Satellites monitor crop conditions, and numerical weather prediction models predict crop production and demand to raise prices or buy in advance at lower prices. These models are applied to forecast solar and wind power generation, adjusting power supply plans and logistics routes. Shipping and air routes are set according to wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction models to reduce fuel costs. Additionally, they predict the movement paths and concentrations of fine dust and pollutants coming from overseas, volcanic ash, and wildfire smoke, contributing to public health protection. It is said that the market size of the private meteorological industry applying numerical weather prediction models will exceed 4 trillion won within the next ten years.

While the world has united in reducing and adapting to greenhouse gases, technological competition is intensifying. Europe is investing over 10 trillion won in developing multipurpose supercomputers for weather and climate prediction, and the U.S. National Weather Service is actively promoting model development projects covering both weather and climate. The Korea Meteorological Administration has focused on the technological competitiveness of software and early on embarked on independently developing numerical weather prediction models. Through the first project started in 2011, the Korean Integrated Model (KIM) was developed to predict global atmospheric flows for ten days, and it has been running on supercomputers for weather forecasting for one year. The model’s predictive performance is now on par with advanced countries such as the U.S. and Japan.

Furthermore, since the second half of last year, work has been underway to develop the next-generation numerical weather prediction model by expanding the model components to include oceans, vegetation, and soil. When the second project is completed by 2026, the model’s weather prediction area will be detailed enough to distinguish Gyeongbokgung Palace within the Korean Peninsula, and probabilistic weather forecasts will be possible for extended prediction periods from 10 to 30 days. We have entered an era where weather information determines national competitiveness. To predict visible weather, KIM is busily operating behind the scenes even now. We look forward to the day when KIM will play a greater role in providing better weather information and enhancing national competitiveness through the success of the next-generation numerical weather prediction model development project.

Park Kwang-seok, Administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.