[Opinion] Decision on Quid Participation Is Not for This Visit to the US

[Asia Economy] President Moon Jae-in's visit to the United States is just one week away.

In an interview with a U.S. newspaper last April, President Moon repeatedly urged President Joe Biden for prompt dialogue with North Korea. In a special speech marking his 4th anniversary in office, he stated, "I will regard the remaining one year of my term as the last chance to move from incomplete peace to irreversible peace." The urgency in the president’s North Korea policy is palpable amid the pressing timeline.

While North Korea’s nuclear issue is absolute for us, it is not so for the United States. The U.S. is well aware of President Moon’s impatience and holds the upper hand in negotiations. The U.S. is waiting for the gift that South Korea will bring.

In fact, former President Donald Trump, though erratic, agreed to the North Korea-U.S. summits that we desperately wanted. Although it was based on his own interests, it was rather predictable and ‘pure.’ In contrast, President Biden is a seasoned and shrewd politician.

President Biden created a hopeful atmosphere by completing a review of North Korea policy within 100 days of his inauguration, changing the ‘D’ in CVID (Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Dismantlement) from Dismantlement to Abandonment, and replacing the term ‘North Korean denuclearization’ with ‘denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.’

However, this only indicates a direction, and the exact implementation plans are unknown. Therefore, excessive optimism should be avoided in restarting the Korean Peninsula peace process.

The U.S. and China are fiercely competing and mutually checking each other through the North Korean nuclear issue. Since the U.S. and China are competing, North Korea has no reason to abandon its nuclear weapons voluntarily. None of North Korea, the U.S., or China are in a hurry, but only South Korea appears to be rushing.

The U.S. does not think South Korea is ready to accept certain conditions yet and will not try to enforce them this time. However, I hope the gift South Korea brings to the U.S. is not participation in the Quad, a four-country consultative body consisting of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia.

The current government maintains the position that "if it is transparent, open, inclusive, and complies with international norms, we can actively cooperate with any regional cooperation body or initiative." However, these four criteria are quite subjective and arbitrary.

Therefore, if participation is unavoidable due to necessity or circumstances, we must examine the expected gains and losses by sector and decide based on our strategic interest balance. In any case, there are pros and cons.

If South Korea joins the Quad early, it can influence the direction and nature of the consultative body on an equal footing with the existing four countries.

However, China’s resentment would have various negative impacts on bilateral relations. Conversely, if the timing is delayed, South Korea would become a member of Quad Plus rather than the Quad. This has the advantage of postponing conflict with China to the maximum and allowing us to determine our response level by observing the Quad’s progress.

The U.S. emphasizes cooperation on soft issues such as quarantine, climate change, and technology. This is a tactic to reduce suspicion about the Quad and encourage participation.

However, the ultimate strategy of security alliance remains unchanged. The U.S. will approach South Korea with justifications and benefits that are difficult to oppose. This will be exchanged for South Korea’s support of its North Korea policy.

Ultimately, the time for South Korea to make a decision will come, if not immediately. That choice is ours, and so are the results and responsibilities. But it will not be during this visit to the U.S.

Hwang Jae-ho, Professor, Department of International Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.