Pandora Opens? Death Toll from Wuhan Coronavirus in China

Official Delay in China's Demographic Announcement Raises Attention on Last Year's Wuhan Death Toll
Wuhan's Average Mortality Rate Over the Past 5 Years at 5.48%... Overseas Media Raise Suspicions of China's Underreporting of Confirmed Cases and Deaths

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] As the official announcement of China's 2020 population statistics is delayed, the number of deaths in Wuhan City, Hubei Province last year has become a matter of intense interest. Wuhan is the area where the COVID-19 outbreak was first reported and was locked down from January 23 to April 7 last year. Wuhan was especially used as a card to pressure China, with the Western camp including the United States pointing to it as the origin of COVID-19.

According to the Chinese National Health Commission (NHC) and others on the 4th, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in China is 4,636, of which 4,512 deaths occurred in Hubei Province (including 3,869 deaths in Wuhan City). 97.3% of all deaths occurred in Hubei Province, and the proportion of deaths in Wuhan City is as high as 83.4%.

Media in the Western camp, including the United States, have continuously raised suspicions that Chinese authorities have underreported the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Chinese health authorities manage asymptomatic COVID-19 cases separately. This is why attention is focused on the delayed official announcement of the "2020 China National Population Statistics." China conducted the 7th National Population Census in November last year. China conducts a nationwide population census every ten years. When Chinese authorities officially announce the census results, the number of deaths in Hubei Province, especially Wuhan City, last year will be revealed.

According to data from the Wuhan City Statistics Bureau, the annual average number of deaths in Wuhan City over 11 years from 2009 to 2019 was 52,853. By year, the number of deaths was 36,779 (mortality rate 4.41%) in 2009, 61,730 (7.42%) in 2011, 40,941 (4.98%) in 2013, 47,637 (5.75%) in 2015, 98,029 (11.62%) in 2017, and 51,221 (5.72%) in 2019.

In 2017, the number of deaths reportedly increased significantly due to a comprehensive household registration survey. Excluding 2017, the annual average number of deaths in Wuhan City over the past 10 years is 48,335. Some speculate that by comparing the number of deaths in Wuhan City last year with the 10-year average, it may be possible to estimate the actual number of deaths caused by COVID-19.

There are also variables. Among Wuhan City's total population of 9,063,973 in 2019, the elderly aged 80 to 99 numbered 259,052. There were also 2,115 super-aged people over 100 years old. It has been pointed out that Chinese statistical authorities may classify deaths as natural deaths of the elderly and super-aged.

Earlier, Hong Kong's Apple Daily raised suspicions that Chinese authorities underreported COVID-19 deaths based on the number of pension recipients in Wuhan. Citing data from the Hubei Provincial Civil Affairs Department, the media recently reported that about 150,000 names disappeared from the list of pension recipients aged over 80 in the first quarter of last year. The media also reported that the number of cremations in Hubei Province in the first quarter of last year was 410,000, about 40,000 more than the same period the previous year (374,000). Apple Daily estimated that the number of deaths in Hubei Province in the first quarter of last year was at least five times higher than the official announcement.

Meanwhile, the average mortality rate in Wuhan City over five years from 2014 to 2019 (excluding 2017) is 5.48%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.