PBOC: "If Birth Restrictions Continue, China's Labor Population Ratio Will Overtake the US"

Preliminary Report Released Before National Bureau of Statistics Census Announcement
"China's Population to Decrease by 2.2% by 2050, US to Increase by 15%"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The People's Bank of China, the central bank of China, has proposed the immediate abolition of birth restrictions to the Chinese government. Analysts warn that if the current trends of low birth rates and aging population continue in China, the labor force ratio between China and the United States could be reversed by 2050, resulting in a loss of economic advantage. With the National Bureau of Statistics of China expected to announce the population census results at the end of this month, attention is focused on whether the Chinese government will further relax birth control measures.

According to foreign media such as CNBC on the 15th (local time), the People's Bank of China suggested in a report released that day that the Chinese government should immediately abolish birth restrictions and relax them to allow at least three children per family. If birth restrictions continue and the current trends of low birth rates and aging population persist, China's population is expected to increase by only 32 million by 2050, resulting in a 2.2% decrease in population, while the U.S. population is expected to increase by 50 million, a 15% rise, potentially reversing the labor force ratio during the same period.

According to the People's Bank of China, the labor-age population ratio in China was 5.4% higher than that of the U.S. in 2019, but if current trends continue, it warned that by 2050, it could be 1.3% lower. The report also included concerns that the rapid pace of aging could put pressure on the Chinese economy. The People's Bank of China pointed out that from next year, the elderly population aged 65 and over will account for 14% of the total Chinese population, marking the start of aging in just 22 years. The bank estimated that it took the U.S. 72 years to reach a similar stage of aging.

According to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (SCMP), researchers at the People's Bank of China strongly argued for the abolition of birth restrictions, stating, "If the government hesitates even slightly to abolish birth restrictions, it will miss valuable time to respond to demographic changes and repeat the mistakes experienced by developed countries."

This report from the People's Bank of China was released ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s announcement of population census data, compiled for the first time in 10 years, expected at the end of this month. Consequently, there are forecasts that the Chinese government will significantly relax birth restrictions by the end of this month.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.