The election is between Park and Oh... so why am I the one trembling?

Lee Nak-yeon, Person Responsible for Nomination Decision
Seoul and Busan Total Defeat Could Deal a Fatal Blow to Prestige
Lee Jae-myung's Policies Also Affect Results
If Opposition Wins Big, Yoon May Join Party
If Draw, Three-Way Race Likely to Continue

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] The fate of the next presidential candidates' "Big 3" ? former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, and Democratic Party Standing Election Committee Chairman Lee Nak-yeon ? will be greatly influenced by the results of this by-election.

The candidate most directly affected is Chairman Lee. During his tenure as party leader, he was the final decision-maker on by-election nominations, even changing party rules and regulations to do so. After stepping down from the leadership, he continued to serve as the election commander, holding significant stakes in the election outcome. If the ruling party loses both Seoul and Busan, it could suffer a severe blow. Should the opposition take both Seoul and Busan, the current "Big 3" presidential race could be reshaped into a "2-strong, 1-middle" structure. Professor Choi Chang-ryeol of Yongin University noted, "If they fail to win even one seat in Seoul and Busan, calls for accountability will intensify, and especially if they suffer a large-margin defeat, their status as a presidential candidate could be threatened." Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University predicted, "The by-election results will serve as a test of Chairman Lee's viability and leadership as a presidential candidate."

Governor Lee is also within the sphere of influence of the by-election results. If the Democratic Party suffers a large-margin defeat in both Seoul and Busan, it is expected that reform agendas championed by Governor Lee, such as basic income and basic housing, will struggle to gain traction. The "two-strong" dynamic between him and Chairman Lee, a prominent rival within the ruling party, would collapse, weakening the convention effect during the primary process. Professor Choi said, "Even if the ruling party loses, the margin of the vote difference will affect Governor Lee's trajectory and standing," adding, "If the loss is narrow, he may show expansion potential within the non-Moon Jae-in faction, but a large-margin defeat would limit his ability to demonstrate strong reformist tendencies."

Former Prosecutor General Yoon is likely to be the biggest beneficiary if the by-election results conclude with an opposition victory. He would become the focal point of the "anti-Moon Jae-in vote," and the stronger the opposition coalition becomes, the more his stature could grow. If the opposition achieves a landslide victory, it is also expected that Yoon might join the People Power Party directly without passing through the third zone. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon predicted, "The center of gravity within the opposition will tilt toward former Prosecutor General Yoon, and the speed at which he joins forces with Kim Jong-in, the emergency committee chairman, will accelerate."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the other hand, if the by-election results in a close race or an opposition defeat, a completely different presidential race scenario will emerge. The "Yoon Seok-yeol, Lee Jae-myung, Lee Nak-yeon" three-strong structure will be further solidified, while in the opposition, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People Party, and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min are expected to reemerge as presidential candidates through the third zone, according to experts. Aside from Lee Jae-myung, Lee Nak-yeon, and Chung Sye-kyun, the prospects of potential presidential candidates included in the "Democratic Party 13 Dragons" (Kim Kyung-soo, Kim Du-kwan, Kim Boo-kyum, Park Yong-jin, Lee Kwang-jae, Lee In-young, Lim Jong-seok, Yang Seung-jo, Choi Moon-soon, Chu Mi-ae) are also linked to the by-election results. If the by-election defeat narrows Chairman Lee's position, these potential candidates may have an opportunity to rapidly rise as "third candidates." Conversely, if the ruling party secures even one victory, the ruling party's presidential primary race is likely to solidify into a "two-strong (Lee Jae-myung, Lee Nak-yeon), one-middle (Chung Sye-kyun), many-weak" structure.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.