An Election Starting with 'Ttang' and Ending with 'Tang'... 'Jiptokki' Cohesion Determines the Outcome

Both Ruling and Opposition Parties Expect Voter Turnout Over 50%
Ruling Party's 'Give Us Another Chance Despite Dislike' Effect Draws Attention Amid Calls for Regime Judgment

Lee Nak-yeon, Standing Election Committee Chairman of the Democratic Party of Korea, is greeting before holding a press conference to encourage voting for the April 7 by-elections at the National Assembly on the 7th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

On the 7th, the day of the April 7 by-election, Kim Jong-in, the Emergency Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, and his wife, Kim Mi-kyung, Honorary Professor at Ewha Womans University, are voting at the Pyeongchang 3 polling station set up at Javier International School in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The outcome of the by-elections on the 7th depends on the consolidation of support bases of both ruling and opposition parties. Amid a wave of regime judgment, the key question is how effective the Democratic Party of Korea's all-out organizational mobilization strategy, even described as 'Youngkkeul' (pulling together every last bit of effort), will be. Although negative public opinion toward the ruling party is strong across all age groups, the voting intentions of the relatively favorable 40s and 50s age groups are drawing attention.

According to the National Election Commission, as of 11 a.m. on the day, the overall turnout rate for the by-elections is 12.2%, with Seoul at 12.7% and Busan at 11.6%. This is 3.5 percentage points lower than the 15.7% turnout at the same time during the 2018 local elections. When combining the early voting rates in Seoul and Busan (21.95% and 18.65%, respectively), the totals reach 34.65% and 30.25%. Notably, in Seoul, the main voting turnout in the Gangnam 3 districts (Seocho, Songpa, Gangnam) is about 2 percentage points higher than the average. However, considering that this election is held on a weekday rather than a holiday, it is still too early to predict the final turnout rate.

Both ruling and opposition parties are encouraging voting, anticipating a high turnout exceeding 50%. The only difference lies in their hopes that voters supporting their respective parties will be more reflected in the high turnout.

Lee Nak-yeon, the Democratic Party's Standing Election Committee Chair, emphasized at a press conference encouraging voting, "If you vote, the candidate you want will be elected, and if you do not vote, the candidate you do not want is more likely to be elected." This appears to be an effort to minimize abstention among Democratic Party supporters.

Kim Jong-in, the Emergency Committee Chair of the People Power Party, told reporters immediately after voting, "As expected, I think candidate Oh Se-hoon will win by a considerable margin. I expect the turnout to slightly exceed 50%."

A distinctive feature of this by-election is that it is difficult to predict the advantages or disadvantages for either party based on turnout levels. In the past, higher turnout among younger voters favored progressive parties, but this time, according to polls, they are leaning toward regime judgment. Therefore, the ruling party has focused on increasing the turnout of its traditional supporters, so-called 'home rabbits,' who are hidden in the polls. In the April general election last year, the Democratic Party's vote share in Seoul constituencies was 53.5%, while the United Future Party had 41.9%. It remains to be seen how effective the plea of 'Give us another chance despite your dislike' will be.

No Woong-rae, co-chair of the Democratic Party's election committee, appeared on YTN Radio and said, "There is a widespread sense of crisis that if things continue like this, we might return to the situation from 10 years ago, and the Democratic Party's support base is consolidating."

Jin Sung-jun, a Democratic Party lawmaker who has been serving as the head of the strategic planning headquarters for candidate Park Young-sun's campaign, appeared on MBC Radio and said, "Since the early voting rate has also recorded the highest ever, I think voting will end at a level slightly above 50%. I believe that the level of turnout does not directly translate into advantages or disadvantages in the election."

He added, "As the election entered its mid-stage, issues such as candidate Oh Se-hoon's land in Naegok-dong and repeated real estate speculation allegations against candidate Park Hyung-joon have emerged, raising public interest in the election significantly. I think many voters will come out to the polls to judge these issues and make their decision."

Lee Nak-yeon, the Democratic Party's Standing Election Committee Chair, had predicted a close race with a margin of around 3 percentage points the day before. Jin said, "I think so too. Although the final polls at the time when publication was allowed showed gaps of 10% or 20% in some places, the atmosphere on the ground was completely different." This suggests that while the Democratic Party is disappointing, public opinion has strengthened toward it being better than the People Power Party in the final stages.

On the other hand, the People Power Party views the poll results as reflecting public sentiment that will translate into voting outcomes. Joo Ho-young, the party's floor leader, said on YTN Radio, "It seems that a huge number of moderate voters in their 20s are angry at the Democratic Party's unfairness and 'double standards.' Many people are disgusted with this administration's economic failure, vaccine incompetence, and double standards, so their support is relatively shifting to us."

Oh Shin-hwan, former People Power Party lawmaker and co-chair of candidate Oh Se-hoon's campaign election committee, said on MBC Radio, "We predict victory if the turnout exceeds 50%, and our expectation is about 55%. The close race with a 3 percentage point margin is the Democratic Party's wishful thinking, and there has been no significant change in the situation since Oh Se-hoon was confirmed as the single candidate." Joo Ho-young had previously predicted a landslide victory with a 15 percentage point margin.

Various polls indicate that the regime judgment theory, ignited by the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) scandal, has been the main factor. Since 2017, polling methods have shifted to focus on mobile phones rather than landlines, increasing the reliability of polls. The Democratic Party has appealed for the consolidation of so-called 'shy progressives' and is hoping for actual effects.

An Il-won, CEO of Research View, said, "Generally, for the Democratic Party to win a two-party race outside the Honam region, it needs to secure over 60% of votes from those under 40. This time, however, young people and those in their 40s are not favorable to the Democratic Party. Most polls show low voting intention among progressives, so the key point is how many will change their minds and head to the polls."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.