"The Ruling Party Feels Support Base... Could 'Shy Jinbo' Become an Election Variable?"

Repeated Emphasis on "Shy Jinbo Clearly Exists"
Expert: "'Shy Jinbo' Is a Logically Invalid Term"

Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate for Seoul mayor, is holding a focused campaign rally at the Gyeongbu Line square of the Express Bus Terminal in Seocho-gu, Seoul, on the morning of the 28th of last month. / Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Joo-hee] The main vote for the April 7 by-elections has begun, with the question of 'O Se-hoon or Park Young-sun' at the forefront. The ruling party has been mentioning the 'Shy Progressive' vote daily, predicting the existence of 'hidden votes,' and attention is focused on how the Shy Progressive vote will influence this election. The Democratic Party claimed that the early voting turnout of 20.54%, the highest ever recorded during April 2-3, is evidence of the ruling party's support base rallying.

Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party's candidate for Seoul mayor, emphasized at a press conference on the 4th, "I don't know exactly what percentage of Shy Progressives there are, but it is certain that they exist." The term Shy Progressive refers to the 'hidden progressive supporters' who do not reveal their true intentions and thus are not captured in opinion polls.

Various opinion polls conducted before the publication ban period showed Park trailing behind her competitor, O Se-hoon of the People Power Party. However, the Democratic Party expressed optimism about a possible last-minute turnaround, stating, "Based on experience, a high early voting turnout has never been a disadvantage."

Park said, "Although the Democratic Party has been lacking in many ways, I believe a rallying has begun around the idea that we must vote for candidate number 1 (Democratic Party) to move forward on the right path." She added, "Just yesterday (the 3rd), while handing out my business cards, citizens quietly told me, 'I voted. I chose number 1. Don't worry too much.'"

Lee Nak-yeon, the party's standing election committee chairman, also appeared on CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' on the 6th, saying, "Our supporters who did not express themselves in opinion polls are now voicing their opinions. The Democratic Party could win by a narrow margin of around 3 percentage points," reiterating the existence of the 'Shy Progressive.'

Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate for Seoul mayor, received a $2 bill, said to bring good luck if kept, from a supporter at Myeongdong Cathedral in Seoul on the 4th. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

The use of the term 'Shy' in elections emerged during the 2016 U.S. presidential election with the 'Shy Trump phenomenon,' where Donald Trump's support was underrepresented in opinion polls. At that time, polls and media predicted that the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win, but the actual result was a complete upset with Trump's victory.

During the election, Trump sparked various controversies with racially and gender-discriminatory remarks, and the 'hidden supporters' who did not publicly disclose their support for such a figure were analyzed as the cause of the Shy Trump phenomenon.

In South Korea, after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, the 2017 presidential election saw Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party (now People Power Party) receive a higher vote share (24.03%) than predicted by opinion polls, leading to interpretations of the existence of 'Shy Conservatives.'

Summarizing the Democratic Party's claims, due to worsening public sentiment caused by issues such as real estate problems and the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) scandal, supporters have been reluctant to express their support for the ruling party, resulting in their opinions not being properly reflected in opinion polls.

Seoul mayoral candidate Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party appeals for support at a focused campaign rally held in front of Yeongdeungpo Station, Seoul, on the 30th of last month. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

On the other hand, the People Power Party interpreted the high early voting turnout as an 'expression of angry public sentiment,' offering a different interpretation from the Democratic Party. O Se-hoon, the People Power Party's candidate for Seoul mayor, stated on the 3rd regarding the high early voting turnout, "I think many people came out to send a warning message about the government's past mistakes, such as rising real estate prices, to ensure things go well in the future."

Spokesperson Bae Jun-young also released a statement the same day, saying, "The highest early voting turnout ever shows that voter anger toward the administration is at its peak," and added, "Despite heavy rain and COVID-19, the voters' march to judge the administration could not be stopped."

Experts pointed out that the idea of Shy Progressives existing while a progressive party is in power is logically untenable.

Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon explained, "In South Korea, during conservative governments, there were many Shy Progressives, and during progressive governments, Shy Conservatives tend to increase. This is because of the political atmosphere and other influences that make people reluctant to express opinions opposing the current administration."

He continued, "From that perspective, the term Shy Progressive does not hold. If a progressive government is in power and people are reluctant to say 'I am progressive,' it is more likely that they are dissatisfied with the current administration rather than hiding their support."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.