The Meaning of One Table... The Starting Point of the Next 6 Years

11.35 Million Voters in Seoul and Busan Account for a Quarter of the Total
Preliminary Battle Ahead of the Presidential Election in One Year... "An Opportunity for Both Parties to Reorganize Their Ranks"

On the 6th, one day before the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election, officials are setting up a polling station for the main vote at the Bukgajwa 1-dong Community Center in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Although the terms of the Seoul and Busan mayors elected in the by-elections on the 7th are only about 1 year and 3 months, many analyses suggest that their impact will last for 6 years. This is because all candidates are considering running in the next local elections, and more importantly, the ruling and opposition parties see this as a crucial watershed and starting point toward the presidential election in March next year.

The number of voters in Seoul is 8.42 million, and in Busan, 2.93 million, totaling approximately 11.35 million. This accounts for about a quarter of the total 44 million voters based on last year's general election. Voter turnout is generally higher compared to other regions. Since the elections are held in the capital Seoul and Busan, the second largest city reflecting public opinion in the Yeongnam region, they serve as an indicator to gauge public sentiment.

With less than a year remaining until the presidential election, these elections are called a "preliminary battle," making it inevitable for both ruling and opposition parties to fight desperately. From the ruling party's perspective, having won consecutive elections including the 2017 presidential election, the following year's local elections, and last year's general election, winning this by-election would solidify their unstoppable momentum. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Hae-chan recently said, "If we win the Seoul mayoral election, we can smoothly proceed to the presidential election, but if things go wrong, we will be on a rough road," reflecting the ruling party's perception.

Based on various opinion polls, the People Power Party is currently in an advantageous position. If this translates into actual votes, they will escape the crisis and "emergency measures" situation and gain a favorable position toward the presidential election. Of course, various variables will come into play during the remaining time until the presidential election, but they can start ahead. On the other hand, the ruling party will need to reassess its aggressive drive amid reform and self-reflection.

Professor Park Sang-chul of the Graduate School of Political Studies at Kyonggi University said, "The by-election will be a benchmark for both ruling and opposition parties ahead of next year's presidential election," adding, "People are struggling due to the failure of real estate policies that crushed hopes of owning a home, and if they lose the election, there will be a shift toward overcoming or supplementing the Moon Jae-in administration."

He continued, "From the People Power Party's perspective, they previously lacked the capacity and scale to compete with the ruling party, but this election could give them strength. However, it is uncertain whether that strength will go to the People Power Party, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, or a third figure," and analyzed, "In any case, this election will be an opportunity for both parties to reorganize their ranks."

Professor Lee Jun-han of the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Incheon National University said, "Of course, this election will set the starting line, but voter tendencies change very dynamically, so nothing is certain," adding, "Public sentiment may change depending on the investigation results related to various allegations against each candidate after the election, which will affect next year's presidential and local elections." He also said, "Any party that becomes complacent after winning may suffer a setback, and how much the losing side reflects on itself is also crucial."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.