4·7 By-Election, Will the Opposition Win Big... 'Last-Minute Variable is the Undecided Voters' Sentiment'

Seohun Oh and Hyeongjun Park Clearly Leading Before Poll Blackout
Focus on Voter Sentiment Changes During 6-Day Poll Publication Ban
Watch Whether Shy Progressives and Shy Conservatives Head to the Polls

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The change in voter sentiment after the ban on publishing poll results is the final variable determining the success or failure of the April 7 by-elections. This is the period when about 20% of undecided voters decide on their preferred candidate, and as the voting day approaches, candidates from each party intensify their election campaigns.

Supporters are cheering at the campaign site of Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor, held near Sangam-dong DMC, Mapo-gu, Seoul on the 2nd. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

On the 6th, the political circles are closely monitoring changes in public opinion during the poll publication ban period (from the 1st until election day). Summarizing the last polls conducted by media outlets simultaneously in Seoul and Busan until the 31st of last month, in the Seoul mayoral election, Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate, had a support rate of around 50-55%. Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate, was trailing Oh with support ranging from 28-35%. In the Busan mayoral election, Park Hyung-joon of the People Power Party held an advantageous position with support between 46-59%, while Kim Young-chun of the Democratic Party showed support in the 26-32% range.

Judging by the poll results alone, the opposition party appears to have the upper hand, but many variables remain. Depending on the design of the survey questions, results vary somewhat, with undecided voters confirmed to be around 20%. Voters who leave room for changing their preferred candidate are estimated to be between 8-22%, depending on the survey.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Experts are also paying close attention to changes in public sentiment during the six days after the poll publication ban. This is because it is not uncommon for the trends shown in polls to be overturned in the actual election. For example, in the 2011 Gangwon Province by-election, Um Ki-young of the Grand National Party (now People Power Party) led by more than 10 percentage points in polls but lost to Choi Moon-soon of the Democratic Party in the election.

Variables that could shake voter sentiment include the TV debate held the previous day, invited by the Broadcast Reporters Club and KNN Broadcasting Station, and reports related to various allegations raised amid negative campaigning controversies. The participation of shy conservatives and progressives, who are reluctant to reveal their political colors in polls, is also an important factor. Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, analyzed on CBS Radio’s ‘Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show’ the day before, saying, "The voter sentiment for trailing candidates or parties has always been underestimated," adding, "There is a possibility that about 5% of support for candidates Park Young-sun and Kim Young-chun is hidden because they are trailing candidates."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.