[Confusing 20s Voter Analysis] Shy Conservative? Although the Argument for Regime Judgment Prevails...

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] From ages 18 to 29, the so-called youth vote has emerged as the biggest variable in the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election. Although only six days remain until the election, this age group has the highest proportion of undecided voters who say they have 'not yet decided on a candidate.' In the most recent poll (Hangil Research survey, commissioned by MBN, conducted March 28-29, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), that proportion reached 25.0%. The overall undecided voter rate in this survey was 11.8%. This phenomenon is consistently observed in all recent polls.

The key to the election now boils down to who can attract the votes of these young voters. The Democratic Party, judging that there is a trend of 'conservatism among people in their 20s and demands for regime judgment,' has begun employing election strategies such as 'distancing from the administration' and 'acknowledging failures in real estate policy.' The People Power Party shares the same perception and believes that 'the more people in their 20s come to vote, the more advantageous it is.' This is why the People Power Party is focusing on encouraging early voting.

However, both parties' assessments omit the question of 'why there are so many undecided voters in their 20s.' They only predict that 'people in their 20s will vote more for the conservative party.' Asia Economy analyzed the voting tendencies of people in their 20s based on seven polls released from the time the opposition unified candidate was decided as Oh Se-hoon until March 31. The results show that the parties' judgments are only 'half correct.' Surprisingly, the thoughts of people in their 20s are complex and multifaceted.

[Confusing 20s Vote Analysis] Disliking one side doesn’t mean they go to the other

People in their 20s are unpredictable. This unpredictability is fully demonstrated in this election as well. No matter how you look at the poll results, no clear 'pattern' emerges. What do they want in this election? With the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election just six days away, each campaign is focusing on winning over the 'undecided voters' who have not yet chosen a candidate. Especially, the 20s age group, which has a higher proportion of undecided voters than other generations, is seen as the biggest variable in which candidate they will vote for. The proportion of voters in their 20s in this election is 19.2% of the total (about 1.62 million out of 8.43 million).

Asia Economy predicted the voting tendencies of people in their 20s based on seven polls (Table 1) conducted and released between March 24 and 31, right after the opposition unified candidate was decided (Note: This series of analyses is not based on statistical significance between detailed figures but rather observes a kind of 'trend'). In six of the surveys, the proportion of undecided voters in their 20s was the highest among all age groups (Table 2). In particular, in the second survey, the rate of those who currently have no preferred candidate or do not know reached 34% among people in their 20s.

One clue to predicting the final decision of undecided voters in their 20s is to examine whether their political ideology leans more toward progressivism or conservatism. Some interpret the current 20s as showing a strong tendency toward conservatism, similar to the elderly aged 60 and above, calling it a kind of '20-60s alignment phenomenon.' Are people in their 20s really as conservative as those in their 60s?

Looking at the support rates for candidates Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon among people in their 20s, Park's support rate was among the lowest across all age groups. In four out of seven polls, people in their 20s were the age group least supportive of Park. In the other three, their support rate was slightly above or below average. On the other hand, the situation was different for Oh. The age group most unfavorable to Oh was those in their 40s. However, the support rate for Oh among people in their 20s was not particularly high compared to the average, so it cannot be said that he gained significant support from this group. In other words, while the likelihood of people in their 20s voting for the Democratic Party candidate has decreased compared to the past, it is difficult to say that all 20s who left the Democratic Party have moved to the People Power Party candidate.

Adding the support rates for Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon by age group confirms this phenomenon (Table 3). Across all surveys, the combined support rate for the two candidates ranges from as low as 78% to as high as 95%. However, among people in their 20s, the rate of supporting either Park or Oh was significantly lower. This means that many in their 20s support a third candidate or have no preferred candidate at all. If the two major parties cannot absorb the votes of people in their 20s, what criteria will these voters use to approach the election? Many polls ask whether this election is about 'regime judgment' or 'national stability.' If the perception among people in their 20s leans toward regime judgment, a significant portion of the undecided voters may lean toward the opposition, such as Oh, rather than Park.

People in their 20s showed support for national stability at levels similar to or lower than other age groups and supported regime judgment at levels comparable to other age groups (Table 4). Their views on real estate policies and controversies, as well as their evaluation criteria emphasizing 'campaign pledges,' were not significantly different from other age groups. In any case, it is clear that people in their 20s, like other age groups, have a stronger perception toward regime judgment than national stability. However, the idea of judging the administration may lead to 'not voting for the ruling party candidate,' but it does not necessarily translate into 'voting for the People Power Party candidate.' This is supported by the low support rate for the People Power Party and the high proportion of independents among people in their 20s (Table 5).

In summary, people in their 20s prefer Oh Se-hoon over Park Young-sun. However, this preference is not stronger than in other age groups. The reason for not supporting Park is likely because they view this election as a regime judgment. However, the relatively low support rate for Oh and the People Power Party compared to other age groups, along with the high proportion of undecided voters, suggests that people in their 20s are 'the most' deliberative among all age groups about to whom they will give the 'key' to judge this administration.

After polls showed Park trailing Oh, Park began adopting a strategy of distancing herself from the current administration. If this strategy, which aligns with the above analysis, succeeds?meaning if undecided voters in their 20s decide that 'it's better to vote for Park Young-sun than to support the People Power Party'?Park's final support rate could rise from the current level. On the other hand, Oh has not separately sent a logical message that it is meaningful to support him even without supporting the People Power Party. It is difficult to predict what final decision the 20s who chose to be undecided for various reasons will make based solely on a simple comparison and analysis of a series of poll results. The only clear point is that their 'generational consciousness' will significantly shake the election outcome. There is only one week left to move the hearts of people in their 20s. Let's listen to their voices beyond the numbers.

Those who have not yet decided... So what will you do?

On the 26th, ahead of the April 7 by-election, election posters of the Seoul mayoral candidates were posted on a street in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

We met with people in their 20s who have not yet decided on a candidate and asked, "Why haven't you decided yet?" and "What will you do going forward?"

"Candidates from major parties have disappointed me at least once, and new candidates haven't been verified. I think I'll decide based on how much they have solutions for real estate policies." Kim ** (Office worker, 27)

"I think I'll vote after seeing pledges that revive businesses and support workers." Kim ** (Job seeker, 29)

"I want to vote based on the person rather than the party, but there is no one. So maybe I should just vote based on the party... haha." Park ** (Office worker, 27)

"*I think I'll just vote based on the party." Lim ** (Office worker, 24)

"I haven't thought deeply. I think I'll vote for the party that matches my ideology, but I don't know yet." Kim ** (Graduate student, 27)

"I don't think the policies will be implemented, and I don't know how to evaluate them." Park ** (Freelancer, 28)

"Since this has become a negative election anyway, I'll watch how *** candidate's *** issue turns out and then decide." Han ** (Office worker, 27)

"I live alone, so I don't watch the news much and don't know much. I think I'll vote based on jobs or real estate policies." Yang ** (Office worker, 27)

"None of the first two, and I don't know if the others' pledges are feasible. I might abstain." Seon ** (Office worker, 29)

"I'm not interested... I'll decide after looking at the pledges." Shin ** (Job seeker, 25)

"Realistically achievable pledges are the standard." Lim ** (University student, 25)

"Maybe pledges and reputation?" Park ** (Unemployed, 27)

"I don't want to vote for ** party, but I don't like ** party either." Han ** (University student, 27)

"I dislike both. Seeing them tear each other down in debates made me feel even more hopeless." Shin ** (Job seeker, 26)

On the 26th, ahead of the April 7 by-election, banners of Seoul mayoral candidates were hung at the Dangsan Station intersection in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.