[Politics, That Day...] 'Poll History Blackout', Eom Ki-young - Choi Moon-soon Gangwon Province Governor Election

2011 April 27 Gangwon Province Governor By-election, Candidate Eom Gi-yeong Leading by 20% Until Ten Days Before
Election Result That Surprised Everyone... Candidate Choi Moon-soon Elected Gangwon Province Governor with Majority Vote

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jung-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

On March 10, about a month before the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election, a banner encouraging voter participation was installed on the exterior wall of the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

When discussing the ‘dark history’ of election opinion polls, the April 27, 2011, Gangwon Province Governor by-election cannot be left out. It remains a chilling memory for election polling experts. When the results of the April 27 Gangwon Province Governor election were announced, not only political parties but also voters were shocked. The results were drastically different from the opinion polls released before the election.

This incident dealt a decisive blow to the credibility of election poll experts' forecasts. Polling agencies, which had been embarrassed by the June 2010 Seoul mayoral election (Oh Se-hoon vs. Han Myeong-sook), implemented institutional improvements to avoid criticism from voters. The Gangwon Province Governor election held eight months after the Seoul mayoral election was a crucial test for the reliability of political opinion polls.

At that time, the Grand National Party nominated Um Ki-young, a familiar MBC TV anchor, while the Democratic Party put forward Choi Moon-soon, a former MBC journalist. The Grand National Party was confident of victory based on strong local organization in Gangwon Province and the candidate’s high recognition. The Democratic Party also nurtured hopes of winning based on Choi Moon-soon’s unique voter-friendly appeal.

Due to Gangwon Province’s vast area, it was practically impossible for gubernatorial candidates to campaign throughout every region. Campaigning was mainly concentrated in densely populated areas, while the rest of the regions had to rely on ‘opinion warfare.’ This naturally favored candidates with solid local organizations. Opinion poll results, which indicated which candidate was leading, also had a significant influence on the choices of Gangwon residents.

On the afternoon of May 28 last year, a demonstration showing the early voting, ballot counting, and vote tallying process was held for the media in the main conference room of the Central Election Commission in Gwacheon-si, Gyeonggi-do. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Candidate Um Ki-young consistently led in opinion polls. This was also true in the poll conducted ten days before the election. The JoongAng Ilbo research team conducted an opinion poll from April 14 to 16, 2011, surveying 700 adult men and women in Gangwon Province. The results showed Um Ki-young at 48.5% and Choi Moon-soon at 28.5%, a 20 percentage point gap. This poll result was announced on April 17, 2011, ten days before the election.

Even among the so-called ‘certain voters,’ Um Ki-young held an overwhelming lead. He was supported by 51.9%, while Choi Moon-soon had 31.7%. It was not only the JoongAng Ilbo poll that predicted Um Ki-young’s lead. Other polls also showed Um Ki-young ahead, though the margin varied.

The Hankyoreh commissioned The People to conduct a poll from April 15 to 16, 2011, surveying 1,151 Gangwon residents aged 19 and older. The results showed Um Ki-young with 46.7% and Choi Moon-soon with 33.1% support. Although the gap narrowed to 13.6 percentage points compared to the JoongAng Ilbo poll, it still exceeded the margin of error.

Such a large gap in support rates can influence voters’ decisions. Voters supporting the trailing candidate may abstain from voting due to concerns about ‘wasted votes.’ Likewise, voters supporting the comfortably leading candidate may feel less motivated to vote, thinking ‘my candidate will win even if I don’t participate.’

Election opinion polls have the positive function of showing the current state of public sentiment through numbers, but their negative effects are also significant. The bigger problem arises when election polls fail to reflect actual public opinion. If the ‘distortion of public opinion’ affects election outcomes, the damage ultimately falls on the people.

On April 15 last year, the 21st National Assembly election day, voters are casting their ballots at a polling station set up at Hyehwa Art Center in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

Those conducting election polls do not deny their inherent limitations. This is why they urge the public to focus on trends rather than specific numbers. However, voters inevitably pay attention to the numbers because they predict election outcomes by looking at which candidate has what percentage of support.

What was the final result of the April 2011 Gangwon Province Governor election, which rewrote the dark history of election polls? Candidate Um Ki-young, who was leading by up to 20% ten days before the election, did not win. Candidate Choi Moon-soon, who seemed to be losing according to the polls, succeeded in winning with a majority vote and was elected governor of Gangwon Province.

The final count showed Choi Moon-soon with 51.5% of the vote and Um Ki-young with 46.6%. The Gangwon Province Governor election was not a razor-thin race at the time. Choi Moon-soon won by nearly a 5 percentage point margin.

It is difficult to definitively say that the election poll issues were the sole cause of this result. Political variables such as incidents before the election and Choi Moon-soon’s last-minute surge also played a role. Nevertheless, the election result, which was so different from the opinion polls, remains a ‘dark history’ of election polling in political history.

Compared to ten years ago, polling agencies have greatly improved their survey methods, and institutional reforms have been implemented to enhance reliability, according to industry insiders. So, can the dark history of election polls now be considered a thing of the past? The results of the April 7 by-elections are a point of interest.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.