Lowered Posture by Ruling Party's 'National Plea' vs Vigilant Opposition's 'Consolidation of Judgment Argument'

Ruling Party Cornered by LH Scandal vs Opposition Launches Attacks on Real Estate Mismanagement
Double-Digit Lead in Polls...Encouraging Early and Same-Day Voting

[Asia Economy Reporters Oh Ju-yeon, Lee Hyun-joo, Jeon Jin-young] With the roles of the ruling and opposition parties reversed, the Democratic Party of Korea resorted to 'pleading,' while the People Power Party went for 'driving the wedge in.' The ruling party lowered its stance by listing words such as 'infinite responsibility, apology, reflection, shortcomings, and original intention,' while the opposition party continued to target voters by emphasizing the 'regime judgment theory.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Cracks in the Concrete Support Base of Those in Their 40s
Ruling Party Targets with Apology, Reflection, and Original Intention

On the 31st, a survey conducted by Realmeter commissioned by YTN and TBS from the 29th to the 30th targeting 1,039 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul (sampling error ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, response rate 14.9%) showed that People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon’s approval rating was 55.8%, leading Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun by 23.8 percentage points (32.0%). When asked about the likelihood of winning the Seoul mayoral election, the gap widened further. Candidate Oh received 62.1% support, beating Park by 33.9 percentage points (28.2%). This is nearly double the difference. While Oh’s support was high across all age groups, it is noteworthy that even among those in their 40s, Oh (48.7%) was supported more than Park (44.2%), indicating cracks in the 'concrete base.'

Another poll showed no reversal. According to a survey conducted by Hankil Research commissioned by MBN on the 28th and 29th, 60.1% said they would vote for candidate Oh, surpassing candidate Park (32.5%) by 27.6 percentage points. This gap widened by about 6.6 percentage points compared to the results from the 22nd and 23rd (21.0 percentage points) conducted by the same agency.

Kim Jong-in Campaigns in Gangdong District
"An Election to Judge the Four Years of the Moon Administration"
Appeals for Stern Judgment from Voters

Although the People Power Party is leading in approval ratings, it is determined not to be complacent until the end. In Seoul, considering that 24 out of 25 district mayors and 101 out of 109 city council members belong to the Democratic Party, the party’s organizational strength means they cannot be assured until the very end. Also, since current approval ratings must translate into actual votes, they appealed to citizens to go to the polls regardless of early or election-day voting.

On the same day, Floor Leader Joo Ho-young said on the radio, "The outcome will be decided by whether people actively go to the polls or not." He maintained a strategy emphasizing the current administration’s failures in real estate policy and the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) speculation scandal. Kim Jong-in, the People Power Party’s Emergency Committee Chairman, said the previous day in Songpa and Seongdong districts, "This Seoul mayoral by-election is an election to thoroughly judge the arrogance, lies, and mismanagement of the Moon Jae-in administration over the past four years," adding, "You must judge sternly."

Lee Nak-yeon’s National Appeal Press Conference
"Apologize for Housing Issues"
Frantic Efforts to Turn the Tide

In contrast, the Democratic Party found itself in a position where it had to squeeze even a dry towel to overturn the situation. The desperate party leadership mobilized fully to Seoul and Busan on the day before the ban on publishing opinion polls. Acting Party Leader Kim Tae-nyeon campaigned on-site in Busan, while Co-Chairman Lee Nak-yeon held a national appeal press conference. Lee said, "The government and ruling party bear great responsibility for not fully addressing housing issues," and bowed, saying, "We apologize." He continued, "We were lacking, but the party that can eradicate and reform this is the Democratic Party," appealing for last-minute support.

At the Central Election Committee meeting held in Busan that morning, Acting Leader Kim appealed, "Please choose Kim Young-choon (candidate) looking not to a return to the past but to future possibilities." The gap between the two candidates in Busan also widened. According to results announced that day by Realmeter commissioned by YTN and Busan Ilbo (survey conducted March 28?29 targeting 1,012 Busan residents, sampling error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate 9.4%), People Power Party candidate Park Hyung-joon led Kim Young-choon by 19.0 percentage points (51.1% to 32.1%). This is 1.3 percentage points wider than the previous survey (17.7%). For more details, refer to the Realmeter or Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission websites.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.