"Next 24 Hours Are Crucial, 50% Success Rate"...Will the Suez Canal Blockage Be Cleared?

If the Opportunity for High Tide Is Missed, Accident Management Will Prolong
Fuel Rationing Implemented in Syria...Sea Route Cut Off with Iran

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the blockade of the Suez Canal enters its sixth day, more than 400 cargo ships and oil tankers remain stranded, raising global concerns over supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, Egyptian authorities are intensifying efforts to salvage the grounded vessel in time for the upcoming high tide. At the accident site, the probability of successfully refloating the ship during this high tide is estimated at around 50%. However, experts warn that if the ship is damaged due to overly aggressive salvage attempts, the canal blockade could be prolonged even further.

According to foreign media including Bloomberg, on the 28th (local time), the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) of Egypt issued a statement emphasizing that "the next 24 hours, when the canal water level rises during high tide, will be critical for the accident recovery." The SCA and the Egyptian government have begun preparations to unload containers from the Ever Given, the grounded vessel in the canal. During the high tide on the 28th and 29th, they plan to accelerate tugboat and dredging operations to ensure the ship is refloated. Egyptian authorities believe that missing this high tide opportunity will likely prolong the recovery process significantly.

Boskalis, the world's largest underwater dredging company involved in the salvage operation, estimates the chance of success during this high tide at about 50%. Peter Berdowski, CEO of Boskalis, stated in an interview, "It fundamentally depends on the canal's water level and soil conditions, but we estimate the success probability at around 50%. If we miss this high tide opportunity, it will be difficult to predict whether it will take days or weeks to remove the Ever Given."

Although the salvage operation has entered its sixth day, the Ever Given has only managed to turn about 29 meters in direction so far. Some warn that continuously pulling the bow and stern with tugboats risks breaking the ship apart, potentially causing containers to spill into the canal. Former British Navy Commander Tom Sharp pointed out, "Towing the ship during high tide offers the highest chance of success, but since the bow and stern are stuck in sandbanks, pulling too hard on both ends to realign the hull risks splitting and damaging the ship."

As the blockade nears a week, logistics damages are snowballing. Currently, about 429 vessels including cargo ships and oil tankers are waiting unable to pass through the canal, with some ships reportedly choosing to reroute around South Africa. Shipping company Maersk also announced the previous day that "15 vessels have already departed for the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa." Using the South African reroute extends the voyage by at least 7 to 9 days, causing significant freight losses.

The fuel shortage crisis in Middle Eastern countries, which heavily rely on imports due to refinery damages from intensified civil wars, is worsening. According to CNN, on this day Syria's Ministry of Petroleum announced the implementation of a fuel rationing system to address the fuel shortage. Syria, whose refineries have been nearly destroyed by civil war, currently imports 75% of its fuel. Particularly, the Suez Canal blockade has cut off maritime routes to Iran, a major fuel supplier, creating the ironic situation of fuel shortages even in oil-producing Middle Eastern countries.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.