2030 'Anti-Yeo Sentiment', 4060 'Conservative-Liberal Clash', and 50s 'Swing Voters' Decide the Outcome

D-14, 4·7 By-election In-depth Analysis
⑤ Voting Trends by Generation
Voters in their 50s Most Numerous in Busan
2nd Place in Seoul, 10,000 Votes Behind 40s
Higher Turnout Favors Progressives, Lower Favors Conservatives
Generation-specific Turnout More Crucial Than Traditional Turnout Formulas

On the 26th, ahead of the April 7 by-election, banners of Seoul mayoral candidates were hung at the Dangsan Station intersection in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] A key factor that will determine the outcome of the April 7 Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections is the "polarization of voting preferences by generation." Experts predict that amid the intense ideological battle between the 40s (progressive) and 60s (conservative), the moderate 50s will play the role of a "casting voter." Additionally, the "angry voting sentiment" of the 2030 generation appears to be an important variable.

◆Strong Anti-Establishment Tendencies Among 2030, What Will They Choose?= The 2030 generation refers to themselves with new terms such as "n-po generation" (youth who have given up on housing, marriage, employment, etc.) and "byeorak geoji" (homeless people impoverished due to soaring housing prices). How likely is it that their anger will manifest as anti-ruling party (anti-Ye) and anti-Moon (anti-Moon Jae-in, former president) tendencies? Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, "People in their 20s tend to oppose the current power regardless of political camp or ideology," adding, "In other words, they are more sensitive to their interests than ideology, so their dissatisfaction with job realities and real estate policy failures will inevitably influence their voting preferences." Professor Park Sang-chul of Kyonggi University also noted, "The intensified employment difficulties and job issues after COVID-19 could lead to voting sentiments critical of the ruling party."

This analysis is relatively clear in public opinion polls as well. According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on behalf of OhmyNews on the 24th, targeting 806 Seoul residents aged 18 and older (95% confidence level, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points), the 20s and 30s showed "conservative-leaning" voting preferences approaching those of the 60+ age group. Among those in their 20s, 60.1% supported Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor, while only 21.1% chose Park Young-sun of the Democratic Party. The 30s showed a similar pattern with 54.8% for Oh Se-hoon and 37.8% for Park Young-sun. For those aged 60 and above, the support was 70.5% for Oh Se-hoon and 26.7% for Park Young-sun.

Some interpret this as an "alliance front" formed between the angry 20s and the traditional conservative supporters in their 60s. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon explained, "The children of voters aged 60 and above are precisely those in their 20s and 30s. There could be a generational voting consolidation phenomenon between the 20s angry about jobs and the 60s upset about real estate."

On the 26th, Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor, is campaigning at Jeungmi Station Intersection on Yangcheon-ro, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

◆The 50s, a Large Voter Group, as the ‘Swing Voter’ to Decide the Outcome= Looking at the results of the 21st general election held last year, among voters in their 50s, 49.1% voted for the Democratic Party and 41.9% for the United Future Party. The 50s, who have the largest number of voters and a broad ideological spectrum, are traditionally classified as swing voters?those who have not yet decided whom to vote for. As of December last year, the population of people in their 50s was 8.53 million, the largest among all age groups. In Seoul, the number is about 1.49 million, ranking second after the 40s (1.5 million), but in Busan, it is 560,000, ranking first.

Professor Choi Chang-ryeol of Yongin University said, "Ultimately, the direction of voting preferences among the moderate 50s, who have a high average turnout and a large number of voters, will determine the election outcome. The key is how many of them accept the frame of judging the current administration." Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University added, "If the 50s share the sentiment that the government failed in real estate policies just like the Roh Moo-hyun administration, a 'disappointment vote' could emerge. On the other hand, if they support the regime stability argument, such as praising K-quarantine efforts, a progressive tilt may appear."

◆Focus on Turnout by Generation Rather Than Overall Turnout= Due to these generational voting tendencies, many analyses suggest that turnout by generation will be more important than the overall turnout. Rather than the formula "high turnout benefits a particular party," it is "which age group votes more" that will influence the outcome. Since this election is held ahead of next year's presidential election, many expect a high turnout. The voter turnout for the Seoul mayoral elections in 2014 and 2018 was about 58.6% and 59.9%, respectively. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "With the presidential election just a year away, it is practically the start of the 'season of politics,' so turnout is likely to be higher than in other by-elections."

Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate for Seoul mayor, is waving and greeting citizens while participating in traffic safety volunteer activities with members of the Green Mothers' Association in front of Bukgajwa Elementary School in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, on the 26th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

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