Possible Additional Provocations by North Korea Next Month on Kim Il-sung's Birthday, Korean Peninsula 'Stalemate'

[Asia Economy Reporters Inho Yoo, Military Specialist Nakgyu Yang, Ji-eun Lee] As the United States mobilizes not only its allies such as South Korea and Japan but also the United Nations (UN) to pressure North Korea over its successive missile provocations, the intense standoff on the Korean Peninsula is rapidly deteriorating.

Having confirmed the U.S.'s tough response policy, North Korea is highly likely to escalate its provocations by launching additional submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) or intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Analysts predict that if North Korea continues its additional military provocations, President Biden will unveil corresponding pressure measures such as sanctions against North Korea.

◇ Continuous provocations seemingly aimed at Biden’s inauguration and first press conference = Since Joe Biden’s inauguration as U.S. president, North Korea’s missile provocations have occurred three times. The first two provocations involved cruise missile launches.

On January 22, shortly after Biden’s inauguration ceremony (January 20, early morning of January 21 Korean time), North Korea test-fired two cruise missiles westward from near Kusong, North Pyongan Province, toward the Yellow Sea. On the 21st, it again launched two cruise missiles westward from the western region toward the Yellow Sea.

The relatively light provocations at the start have been interpreted as a kind of “testing Biden’s stance.”

Afterward, judging that the U.S. would not change its North Korea strategy, North Korea sent a “warning message” by launching ballistic missiles in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

Regarding this, the National Intelligence Service reportedly informed the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that “North Korea may have launched missiles a day before Biden’s January 25 (local time) press conference,” according to intelligence committee members.

The day after the ballistic missile launch, on the 26th, North Korea revealed detailed information about the missile types and performance. The newly disclosed photos show a new tactical guided missile with a pointed warhead alternating in black and white, similar to the modified Iskander displayed at the military parade. The missile’s side bears the serial number ‘ㅈ 19992891.’

North Korea did not mention the U.S. or South Korea as the background for the missile launch but described it as “deterring various military threats on the Korean Peninsula.” This is interpreted as emphasizing missile development to secure deterrence against the South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation aimed at North Korea denuclearization.

◇ Next targets: SLBM, ICBM? = Considering the sequence of developments, the possibility of additional provocations by North Korea is assessed to be high.

From North Korea’s military and political perspective, further provocations are necessary. Currently, North Korea is developing a three-weapon set of new tactical guided missiles (tactical guided weapons, North Korea’s version of Iskander), super-large multiple rocket launchers, and a new version of the North Korean ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System).

Test launches are needed to reduce intervals between consecutive missile launches. Additional SLBM launches cannot be ruled out.

If the Biden administration’s North Korea policy, to be announced in early next month, emphasizes deterrence and pressure, it is expected that North Korea might conduct test launches of SLBMs or ICBMs to demonstrate U.S. threat capabilities. The period around Kim Il-sung’s birthday (April 15) is also mentioned as a possible time for additional provocations.

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, “If the U.S. only talks about dialogue without concrete actions, North Korea is likely to conduct additional provocations. Rather than medium- to long-range missiles, North Korea will probably continue to release improved versions of the new three-weapon set (Iskander, ATACMS, super-large multiple rocket launcher) shown at the military parade.”

◇ Is there a chance for breakthrough through North-South dialogue amid North Korea-U.S. tensions? = Given the confrontation between North Korea and the U.S. immediately after the new administration took office, the possibility of resolving the situation through dialogue is currently low.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In his press conference, President Biden warned of “corresponding responses” if tensions with North Korea continue to escalate, citing North Korea’s violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Accordingly, on the 26th (local time), the UN Security Council will hold a meeting of the sanctions committee to determine whether North Korea’s ballistic missile launches violate UN Security Council resolutions.

If the Security Council concludes that the launches violate resolutions and announces corresponding measures, North Korea may promptly respond with additional provocations. This could also influence the results of the upcoming trilateral security chiefs meeting among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan next week.

However, unlike last year’s Security Council meeting convened over ballistic missile launches, the sanctions committee meeting carries less weight, leading to interpretations that the U.S. might be keeping the door open for dialogue with North Korea.

President Biden also left room by stating he is “ready for diplomacy.” North Korean Workers’ Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un’s absence from observing the ballistic missile launch the previous day is interpreted as a move to apply pressure on the U.S. while partially moderating the provocation level.

However, the South Korean government’s room to play a role appears limited.

Shin Beom-chul, head of the Foreign and Security Center at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, said, “North Korea’s military provocations seem to express dissatisfaction with the U.S. North Korea policy, which can be seen as ‘bypassing South Korea.’ Since the Biden administration holds the key, our government must secure U.S. support or cooperation to achieve the peace process on the Korean Peninsula.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.