[Lee Myung-ho's Future Preview] The Future of Life, A Sustainable Future

[Asia Economy Reporter Junhyung Lee] Forecasting the future can be said to be reading people's desires and beliefs. A well-known framework for understanding desires is Maslow's hierarchy of human needs theory. This theory states that human needs consist of five levels: physiological needs, safety needs, social needs, esteem needs, and self-actualization needs. The lower two levels, that is, physiological and safety needs, mainly pertain to economic activities providing products and services to satisfy demands for food, clothing, and shelter. The upper three levels present the norms, or beliefs, necessary for forming societies and running nations. Maslow's theory offers insight into human growth and also aids in future forecasting. It suggests that human groups and societies pursue higher-level needs once the lower-level needs are fulfilled.

However, understanding human desires and beliefs is not easy. Each individual has different degrees and targets of the five desires. As a group, humans also change their targets and methods of desire with the times. While some pursue wealth or power to realize desires, others believe that suppressing desires leads to happiness.

The standard for fulfilling desires in industrial society was abundance. The belief prevailed that desires could be satisfied with products, and to obtain those products, one had to earn money. The standard of abundance was "more, wider, faster." Products overflowed, and more people and goods were sent farther and faster. People regarded having more as a standard for social recognition, esteem, success, and self-actualization. Humanity thus enjoyed an unprecedented golden age of abundance.

However, the abundance of industrial society has placed enormous burdens on the sustainability of the Earth and humanity. The massive consumption of resources and energy by a population of 7.8 billion ultimately leads to global warming and environmental and ecological destruction. Continuous warnings about the climate crisis and global warming have evolved from mere alerts to awakenings of a future crisis for humanity decades ahead. Sustainability is emerging as a new standard redefining human desires and beliefs. Although a major trend has not yet formed, cases that read new desires and beliefs are increasing.

According to research reports from Bain & Company and others, new sustainability trends have emerged between 2014 and 2019. Globally, renewable energy generation increased by 50%, the number of electric vehicles by 900%, and sustainability-linked debt insurance by 1000%. In the UK, consumption of protein alternatives to meat increased by 85%, and plant-based meat is expected to grow to a $140 billion market within ten years. The market value of plant-based beverages like almond milk is projected to grow annually by 12% from $13 billion.

Consumer products related to sustainability are now growing nearly six times faster than other brands, and 73% of global consumers responded that they would change their consumption habits to reduce environmental impact. Between 2014 and 2017, the number of vegetarians in the US increased by 600%. In France, as well as Germany and Poland, one in ten youths followed a vegetarian diet in 2017. The Netherlands has the highest vegetarian population worldwide at 17%. In Korea, the vegetarian population increased about tenfold from 150,000 in 2008 to approximately 1.5 million in 2018, but still remains at a low level of 2-3%. However, ethical consumption considering animal welfare and the environment is increasing, especially among younger generations. Beliefs about consumption are changing.

If what has been examined so far mainly concerns clothing and food within food, clothing, and shelter, how will the other aspect of sustainable living, shelter, change? The still prevailing standard of abundance in housing is wide space, high skyline views, and locations with various cultural facilities. Just as high-rise buildings symbolized success in industrial society, housing followed this standard. Korea's apartment culture, in particular, has become more extreme. Five-story apartments were rebuilt into 15-story buildings, then again into 35-story buildings, increasing residential area two to three times on the same land area and raising real estate prices two to three times. The easing of floor height regulations acts as a device to increase wealth and is justified by the logic of expanding real estate supply. Public assets such as skyline and view rights become privileges enjoyed by high buildings and expensive homes. Wealth and population concentrate more in metropolitan downtowns, deepening polarization. Will this housing culture continue?

A new trend shaping housing culture worldwide is COVID-19. People are moving their residences from city centers to suburbs. Residential preferences are shifting from high population density to low density, from areas with many artificial structures to those with abundant greenery, and from car-dependent areas to those where walking or cycling is possible. This is partly related to physiological needs brought by aging. Urban spaces divided and separated into commercial and residential zones, requiring car travel, are not suitable for the elderly. As aging progresses, activity ranges narrow, and lifestyles shift to short-distance travel. The best housing conditions are residential spaces designed so that people can eat, interact, receive treatment and care, and walk within a short distance. Cities in Europe, already aged, are restructuring urban spaces so that most daily activities can be performed within 15 minutes. This change was brought by aging before COVID-19, which only accelerated the trend.

As of 2020, Korea's population aged 65 and over is 15.7%, but in 20 years, by 2041, one in three people will be elderly at 33.4%, and by 2048, 27 years later, it is expected to become the world's oldest country at 37.4%. However, Korea's real estate policies do not address housing measures for an aged and shrinking population society 20 years from now. The 35-story apartments, a measure against real estate price surges, may become a burden in an aged society 20 years later. A foresight into future life is necessary.

Myungho Lee, Planning Committee Member, Yeo Si Jae Foundation

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.